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Post by JoyinMudville on May 1, 2024 15:53:21 GMT -5
Speaking of ATACMS
Not Crimea but Luhansk where rumors are rampant that Russia is gearing up for a summer offensive. The benefit of ATACMS and Himars is that Ukraine can target Russian troop concentrations before they get to the zero line or within rifle range of Ukrainian infantry
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 4, 2024 12:32:50 GMT -5
A good look at the recent dynamic on the front as Russia tries to capitalize on undermanned Ukrainian forces before US aid arrives.
There's some indication that aid actually started arriving late last week
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 5, 2024 22:44:04 GMT -5
MAGA dithering had consequences that are still being felt on the battlefield
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Post by pickle20 on May 7, 2024 7:59:18 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on May 7, 2024 8:17:58 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 7, 2024 9:53:50 GMT -5
Which, in and of itself, is a strategic victory for Ukraine. They've rendered one of the two main military supply routes into Crimea, and Kherson, inoperable. Russia is trying to construct a new, southern rail line to augment that main rail line that goes through Tokmak and then onto Melitopol. The Ukrainians are looking at any rail road bridge between Mauripol and Melitopol to hit with ATACMs Ukraine should still take out the Kerch bridge
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Post by soulflower on May 7, 2024 10:11:17 GMT -5
Which, in and of itself, is a strategic victory for Ukraine. Losing so much of their territory in the southeast that the Russians are able to bypass Crimea and supply their troops via land is not a "strategic victory" for Ukraine. Don't quit your day job.
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 7, 2024 10:20:05 GMT -5
Which, in and of itself, is a strategic victory for Ukraine. Losing so much of their territory in the southeast that the Russians are able to bypass Crimea and supply their troops via land is not a "strategic victory" for Ukraine. Don't quit your day job. The rail routes through souther Zaporizhia are more vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes and sabotage than the Kerch bridge. If your strategy is to deny the Russians the ability to resupply Crimea and Kherson eliminating 1 of the main routes for doing that constitutes a strategic victory. Speaking of day jobs...
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Post by soulflower on May 7, 2024 10:27:55 GMT -5
Losing so much of their territory in the southeast that the Russians are able to bypass Crimea and supply their troops via land is not a "strategic victory" for Ukraine. Don't quit your day job. The rail routes through souther Zaporizhia are more vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes and sabotage than the Kerch bridge. If your strategy is to deny the Russians the ability to resupply Crimea and Kherson eliminating 1 of the main routes for doing that constitutes a strategic victory. Speaking of day jobs... Hey Einstein, the bridge didn't open until 2018. Which proves that Russia is able to supply civilians and their military assets in Crimea with or without the bridge. It's a symbolic target. I've tried to tell you that for the last few months. Now the mainstream western Press is confirming it.
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Post by ishmael on May 7, 2024 10:31:35 GMT -5
Don't downplay it though as an important target nonetheless. Sometimes, a symbolic "win" has great value.
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Post by soulflower on May 7, 2024 10:37:01 GMT -5
Don't downplay it though as an important target nonetheless. Sometimes, a symbolic "win" has great value. Their last "symbolic" win when they destroyed the bridge over a year ago, led to the deaths of several civilians. Including an innocent truck driver who didn't know he was carrying explosives. I get that morale is bad in Ukraine currently and they need some symbolic wins. But it's also true that they are suffering ammo shortages and are getting only a limited number of long-range missiles. So given the current circumstances and the rationing, it doesn't make sense to waste ammo on targets that aren't high value military targets.
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Post by ishmael on May 7, 2024 11:19:28 GMT -5
Don't downplay it though as an important target nonetheless. Sometimes, a symbolic "win" has great value. Their last "symbolic" win when they destroyed the bridge over a year ago, led to the deaths of several civilians. Including an innocent truck driver who didn't know he was carrying explosives. I get that morale is bad in Ukraine currently and they need some symbolic wins. But it's also true that they are suffering ammo shortages and are getting only a limited number of long-range missiles. So given the current circumstances and the rationing, it doesn't make sense to waste ammo on targets that aren't high value military targets. Actually, low morale might be the biggest reason FOR hitting it. It is a cost-benefit analysis however. Would the uptick in morale be worth the potential response from Putin?
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 7, 2024 11:39:43 GMT -5
The rail routes through souther Zaporizhia are more vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes and sabotage than the Kerch bridge. If your strategy is to deny the Russians the ability to resupply Crimea and Kherson eliminating 1 of the main routes for doing that constitutes a strategic victory. Speaking of day jobs... Hey Einstein, the bridge didn't open until 2018. Which proves that Russia is able to supply civilians and their military assets in Crimea with or without the bridge. It's a symbolic target. I've tried to tell you that for the last few months. Now the mainstream western Press is confirming it. Hey Einstein, Before the Kerch Bridge they used the port of Sevastopol. You'll recall that Ukraine has successfully driven Russia's vaunted Black Sea Fleet out of their base there and out of the northwestern Black Sea. y Another strategic victory.
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 7, 2024 11:41:05 GMT -5
Their last "symbolic" win when they destroyed the bridge over a year ago, led to the deaths of several civilians. Including an innocent truck driver who didn't know he was carrying explosives. I get that morale is bad in Ukraine currently and they need some symbolic wins. But it's also true that they are suffering ammo shortages and are getting only a limited number of long-range missiles. So given the current circumstances and the rationing, it doesn't make sense to waste ammo on targets that aren't high value military targets. Actually, low morale might be the biggest reason FOR hitting it. It is a cost-benefit analysis however. Would the uptick in morale be worth the potential response from Putin? I agree. There are a couple of key dates coming up. One is May 9th which is 'Victory Day'. Speaking of morale, nothing has boosted morale in Ukraine more than the US passing $60 billion in military assistance. Finally, there is a military benefit of knocking out the Kerch bridge. Doing so forces ALL the traffic coming in and out of Crimea through the war zone of Zaporizhia which will further gum up logistics. Keep an eye on another bridge... it is called the Chonhar Bridge which connects Eastern Crimea with Kherson (there's a road and rail bridge). Ukraine has hit it before. They'll hit it again. Finally, the western approach out of Crimea goes through Armiansk and up to the Dnipro River where the road connects with the main East/West Highway (the M14). If you're wondering why Ukraine has a small force on the right bank the Dnipro (which Russia has been unable to dislodge after a year of trying), look no further than that T intersection.
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Post by soulflower on May 7, 2024 11:52:02 GMT -5
Their last "symbolic" win when they destroyed the bridge over a year ago, led to the deaths of several civilians. Including an innocent truck driver who didn't know he was carrying explosives. I get that morale is bad in Ukraine currently and they need some symbolic wins. But it's also true that they are suffering ammo shortages and are getting only a limited number of long-range missiles. So given the current circumstances and the rationing, it doesn't make sense to waste ammo on targets that aren't high value military targets. Actually, low morale might be the biggest reason FOR hitting it. It is a cost-benefit analysis however. Would the uptick in morale be worth the potential response from Putin? Using missiles to destroy a bridge is difficult. Both sides have had more failure than success when attempting that. And again, they have a limited supply of long-range missiles so it doesn't seem strategically sound to waste them on a target that has little to no military value. The last time Ukraine destroyed the Crimea bridge they used a truck loaded with explosives, not a missile. They can, and maybe will, try that again. But to what end? It's not going to stabilize the frontlines or improve morale long-term.
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Post by soulflower on May 7, 2024 11:55:53 GMT -5
Hey Einstein, the bridge didn't open until 2018. Which proves that Russia is able to supply civilians and their military assets in Crimea with or without the bridge. It's a symbolic target. I've tried to tell you that for the last few months. Now the mainstream western Press is confirming it. Hey Einstein, Before the Kerch Bridge they used the port of Sevastopol. You'll recall that Ukraine has successfully driven Russia's vaunted Black Sea Fleet out of their base there and out of the northwestern Black Sea. y Another strategic victory. Respectfully, you're the polar opposite of RJ I respect your attempts to keep shining a turd though. Keep it up.
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 7, 2024 12:00:56 GMT -5
Hey Einstein, Before the Kerch Bridge they used the port of Sevastopol. You'll recall that Ukraine has successfully driven Russia's vaunted Black Sea Fleet out of their base there and out of the northwestern Black Sea. y Another strategic victory. Respectfully, you're the polar opposite of RJ I respect your attempts to keep shining a turd though. Keep it up. Are you looking in a mirror? And, I lost whatever respect I had for you years ago. Your constant attempts to run cover for Putin did that.
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 7, 2024 12:05:18 GMT -5
Actually, low morale might be the biggest reason FOR hitting it. It is a cost-benefit analysis however. Would the uptick in morale be worth the potential response from Putin? Using missiles to destroy a bridge is difficult. Both sides have had more failure than success when attempting that. And again, they have a limited supply of long-range missiles so it doesn't seem strategically sound to waste them on a target that has little to no military value. The last time Ukraine destroyed the Crimea bridge they used a truck loaded with explosives, not a missile. They can, and maybe will, try that again. But to what end? It's not going to stabilize the frontlines or improve morale long-term. It depends on the payload. We saw Ukraine effectively use HIMARS and other missiles to hit the bridges over the Dnipro. It was the main contributing factor to Russia’s retreat from the right bank of the river - a major strategic victory for Ukraine. And, the lines are already stabilizing as western kit starts arriving
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Post by soulflower on May 7, 2024 12:41:15 GMT -5
Respectfully, you're the polar opposite of RJ I respect your attempts to keep shining a turd though. Keep it up. Are you looking in a mirror? And, I lost whatever respect I had for you years ago. Your constant attempts to run cover for Putin did that. Facts are your enemy
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Post by soulflower on May 7, 2024 12:45:42 GMT -5
Using missiles to destroy a bridge is difficult. Both sides have had more failure than success when attempting that. And again, they have a limited supply of long-range missiles so it doesn't seem strategically sound to waste them on a target that has little to no military value. The last time Ukraine destroyed the Crimea bridge they used a truck loaded with explosives, not a missile. They can, and maybe will, try that again. But to what end? It's not going to stabilize the frontlines or improve morale long-term. It depends on the payload. We saw Ukraine effectively use HIMARS and other missiles to hit the bridges over the Dnipro. It was the main contributing factor to Russia’s retreat from the right bank of the river - a major strategic victory for Ukraine. And, the lines are already stabilizing as western kit starts arriving I'm seeing differently in my newsfeeds. Things are pretty dire for Ukraine at the moment
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 7, 2024 18:02:13 GMT -5
I'm seeing differently in my newsfeeds. Things are pretty dire for Ukraine at the moment I don't think anyone is surprised that someone who routinely reposts tweets straight from the St Petersburg troll farm is seeing things differently. Ok, let's talk facts. Have Russian troops even made it across the canal yet? The fact is that it has been roughly two weeks since the GOP congress stopped dithering and passed aid for Ukraine. Yes, that dithering did tremendous damage and temporarily tilted the battlefield in Putin's favor but US weapons and ammunition are once again on the way. They are just beginning to reach the Ukrainian battlefield but the volume and tempo of those deliveries is steadily increasing. Bigger systems such as Bradley's and F-16s are also on the way. Oh, and here's what your boy Julian had to say about the Russian advance on the village of Arkhangelske " They are taking massive casualties, indicating fresh munitions arrivals for Ukrainian defenders."
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Post by soulflower on May 7, 2024 19:55:19 GMT -5
I'm seeing differently in my newsfeeds. Things are pretty dire for Ukraine at the moment " They are taking massive casualties, indicating fresh munitions arrivals for Ukrainian defenders." Massive cope at this point. Heavy casualties or not, the Russians are advancing at the fastest pace since 2022. CNN: Russia is capturing its biggest swath of territory since July 2022The aid package isn't going to come fast enough to stop the bleeding for Ukraine. I share Julian's Tweets so you can't accuse me of citing "pro-Russian" sources when I point out the realities of what is happening in Ukraine.
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 7, 2024 20:42:05 GMT -5
The aid package isn't going to come fast enough to stop the bleeding for Ukraine. You have no earthly idea what you're talking about because you're just trolling based on wishful thinking.
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Post by soulflower on May 7, 2024 20:50:46 GMT -5
The aid package isn't going to come fast enough to stop the bleeding for Ukraine. You have no earthly idea what you're talking about because you're just trolling based on wishful thinking. And yet, I keep being vindicated. - Russia's economy has survived the "crippling sanctions" - Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive failed - Ukraine has a manpower problem - Ukrainian men are increasingly dodging the draft - Ukraine's allies have a supply-chain problem - The Russians don't need the Crimea bridge for military logistics I mentioned all of the above things before they were later confirmed by western mainstream media sources. Maybe the one with a wishful thinking problem is you?
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 7, 2024 21:29:26 GMT -5
You have no earthly idea what you're talking about because you're just trolling based on wishful thinking. I mentioned all of the above things before they were later confirmed by western mainstream media sources. Maybe the one with a wishful thinking problem is you? I'm not going to go through all the times you have been wrong. I've already done that plenty of times. Has Russia crossed the canal yet? If things are so dire for Ukraine, why haven't they? If things are so dire for Ukraine, why can't Russia knock the Ukrainian troops off the left bank of the Dnipro? You're exact words were that 'the aid won't arrive in time to stop the bleeding' I'm saying the aid has just begun to arrive but it is already having an impact and it is stabilizing the lines. Time will tell
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 9, 2024 7:11:25 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 10, 2024 6:46:40 GMT -5
Russia may have begun a long anticipated effort to mount an offensive toward Kharkiv. There’s definitely been an uptick in fighting. Not much else clear beyond that
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 11, 2024 10:00:01 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on May 12, 2024 8:41:59 GMT -5
The Russians have advanced around 20km on Ukraine's northern border in about 2 days. Rapid pace given the trend of slow and grinding advances throughout this war.
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Post by JoyinMudville on May 12, 2024 11:21:59 GMT -5
The basic dynamics of this phase of the war remains the same, Russia is trying to get whatever territory it can wherever it can before US military aid arrives en masse
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