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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 16, 2023 18:07:53 GMT -5
So, there is a ton going on a number of different axes.
Moving clockwise...
1. Russia attempted an offensive toward Kupyansk which Ukraine has, for now, at least thwarted if not beaten back
2. Ukraine has pushed back around and continues to fix Russian forces north and south of Bakhmut
In the south
3. Ukraine is pushing south from Velyka Novosilka down the Mokri Yali river valley toward either Mauriopul or Berdyans'k which are on the coast
This week they cleared Urozhaine and are now pushing further south down the left bank of the river with an eye to several key bridges (Zavitne Bazhannia being one of them)
4. Ukraine is pushing south toward Melitopol and the key east/west highway known as the M14 which is the main route of supply between the theater and Crimea
As we speak, Ukraine has made significant advances at Robotyne and is approaching the key town of Tokmak.
5. Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro, established and continues to resupply two bridge heads over the Dnipro at Kherson. This allows them to threaten that same M14 highway and supplies coming in and out of Crimea
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I'm going to post stories here about developments on the battlefield. If you don't want to read them, don't open the thread.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 16, 2023 18:12:07 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 16, 2023 18:18:46 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 16, 2023 19:59:30 GMT -5
Another significant development is that Russia's lack of reserves is forcing its military commanders to rob Peter to pay Paul by moving units from one front to another and in some cases they seem to be splitting up cohesive units and spreading them across the lines. Cannibalizing front line units is a sure sign that your defenses are spread thin. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ukraine-invasion-updates-ctp#UkraineInvasionUpdates
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 17, 2023 9:21:59 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Aug 17, 2023 9:30:37 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 17, 2023 10:30:40 GMT -5
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Post by pickle20 on Aug 17, 2023 10:59:06 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Aug 17, 2023 11:23:14 GMT -5
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Post by pickle20 on Aug 17, 2023 13:33:53 GMT -5
Nah bro it's on X so it must be tRuE
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Post by soulflower on Aug 17, 2023 14:55:29 GMT -5
Nah bro it's on X so it must be tRuE There's good and bad information on social media just like the rest of the internet. It's up to individuals to be active, not passive, consumers of news and other information...
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 17, 2023 16:38:07 GMT -5
Crossing of the DniproIt's difficult to get exact information on this but starting several weeks ago, Ukraine sent a raiding party to the right bank of the Dnipro across from Kherson. This first lodgment was based around the Antonivskiy bridge. That may sound familiar because Ukraine destroyed this bridge last summer as part of its campaign to isolate Russian troops on the right bank of the Dnipro. Recently, Ukrainian troops have crossed the river farther east at Kozachi Laheri. This crossing was a complete surprise and the force was able to capture a 'significant' number of Russian prisoners their commander, Major Tomov, who Ukraine now claims is cooperating with them. I'm not going to post the video of the Russian major as it may simply be a Ukrainian propaganda effort and the Major may be under duress, although nothing in the video indicates that. /photo/1 There's a lot of debate about whether or not these are bridgeheads or just staging grounds for special ops forces to conduct sabotage missions but they are significant for two reasons. 1. From these lodgments, Ukrainians can hit the key M14 highway (the main supply route between Crimea and the Donbas) and conduct other operations deep behind Russian lines. 2. Because of the threat these troops pose to Russia's supply lines and, their hold on Crimea, the Russian military has to take them seriously. This means they are diverting troops from other areas of the theater to guard against the potential for a bigger Ukrainian push south toward Crimea. The final tidbit of interest is that the Royal marines have spent the last six months with training somewhere between 900 to 2000 Ukrainian marines in Somerset - including riverine crossings. www.gov.uk/government/news/british-commandos-train-hundreds-of-ukrainian-marines-in-uk-programmeThe video below shows the training on a river that looks remarkably like the Dnipro. That's not a coincidence
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Post by soulflower on Aug 17, 2023 19:24:57 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 17, 2023 20:37:47 GMT -5
A look at the significance of recent advances
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 19, 2023 17:20:33 GMT -5
The Washington Post article quoting unnamed US intelligence officials saying that Ukraine will not reach Melitopol this year is significant primarily for the splash it has created in DC policy circles and it certainly gives ammunition to the capitulation caucus but the analysis is flawed. While there is no doubt that Ukraine wants to liberate Melitopol and bring relief to the people there suffering under Moscow's brutal repression - (I shudder to think about the revelations regarding torture chambers and mass graves that will almost certainly follow such a liberation) - Melitopol in and of itself is not the strategic objective. The objective is to severe Kherson and Crimea from the rest of the occupied areas and the key to that is the M14 highway and the east-west railroads bringing supplies from the Donbas. There are any number of places where Ukraine can sever those critical supply routes. Furthermore, while not reaching Melitopol would be disappointing, even modest additional advances by Ukraine toward Tokmak or Mariupol will give Ukraine fire control over those routes which will serve their objective of making Crimea untenable for the Russians. The last thing I'll say is I find it interesting that this story is coming out during the week when we're actually beginning to see some movement on the front lines. www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2023
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Post by soulflower on Aug 19, 2023 17:55:33 GMT -5
Ukraine’s recent advances in the south amount to a few kilometers. After three months, they’re still several kilometers away from Russia’s first defensive lines in the south.
US Intel knows more about Ukraine’s offensive capacity than we do. I don’t think they’re leaking this stuff to the Washington Post (the CIA’s favorite newspaper) prematurely. Again, it’s been three months of intense fighting.
Below is Rob Lee on why the current situation is not similar to last summer’s Kherson offensive
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 19, 2023 21:12:42 GMT -5
Ukraine’s recent advances in the south amount to a few kilometers. After three months, they’re still several kilometers away from Russia’s first defensive lines in the south. Sorry, but that is simply not true. In Robotyne and elsewhere it is clear from the maps that they are through or engaging at the initial defensive lines
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 19, 2023 22:21:44 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Aug 20, 2023 8:46:17 GMT -5
Ukraine’s recent advances in the south amount to a few kilometers. After three months, they’re still several kilometers away from Russia’s first defensive lines in the south. Sorry, but that is simply not true. In Robotyne and elsewhere it is clear from the maps that they are through or engaging at the initial defensive lines Both things can be true at the same time: - That Ukraine has made modest gains recently. A few kilometers at best. - That their losses so far after almost three months suggest their offensive force will run out of steam before they achieve the objectives of the counteroffensive. IMHO, the Intelligence community is probably trying to lower expectations with these leaks to the Press. They know far more about Ukraine’s offensive capacity than does ISW… (The yellow highlighted areas are Ukraine's gains so far in the counteroffensive)
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 20, 2023 9:28:09 GMT -5
Sorry, but that is simply not true. In Robotyne and elsewhere it is clear from the maps that they are through or engaging at the initial defensive lines Both things can be true at the same time: - That Ukraine has made modest gains recently. A few kilometers at best. - That their losses so far after almost three months suggest their offensive force will run out of steam before they achieve the objectives of the counteroffensive. IMHO, the Intelligence community is probably trying to lower expectations with these leaks to the Press. They know far more about Ukraine’s offensive capacity than does ISW… What’s true is that back in February 2023, U.S. intelligence thought that Kyiv would fall within days. General Montgomery thought he would reach Caen on June 6, 1944. the British finally made their day 1 objective over 40 days later. Wars have a tendency to defy schedules which means that prognosticators usually end up with egg on their faces. Back in July, your boy Rybar said that the Russian troops were on the verge of collapse. And, as I and others have pointed out, the reporting is flawed because putting the M14, and the accompanying railroad, under fire control is strategically significant and can be accomplished whether they take Melitopol by your arbitrary deadline or not. But you keep on predicting the future. It has worked out so well for you on this topic
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Post by soulflower on Aug 20, 2023 10:01:08 GMT -5
Both things can be true at the same time: - That Ukraine has made modest gains recently. A few kilometers at best. - That their losses so far after almost three months suggest their offensive force will run out of steam before they achieve the objectives of the counteroffensive. IMHO, the Intelligence community is probably trying to lower expectations with these leaks to the Press. They know far more about Ukraine’s offensive capacity than does ISW… What’s true is that back in February 2023, U.S. intelligence thought that Kyiv would fall within days. I'm familiar with those reports but I don't know what their analysis was based on in 2022. For example, there's some evidence that Russia was able to capture huge amounts of territory in southern Ukraine in March 2022 because some high level Ukrainian officials collaborated with the Russians. (see the Reuters article below) Reuters: How Russia spread a secret web of agents across UkraineBased on the above, if our intelligence community had prior knowledge of this problem, perhaps both Russia and the US thought Ukraine's government would quickly fold? The entire Russian-Ukrainian intelligence operation didn't go according to plan. Not all Ukrainian officials helped the Russians but it's believed by Zelensky and other high-ranking Ukrainian officials that Russia was able to quickly capture huge swaths of southern Ukraine due to spies and traitors. So maybe the intelligence assessment was based on the assumption that Ukraine's government was more unstable and infiltrated by Russian intelligence than it turned out to be? Today, the circumstances in Ukraine are not the same as 2022. This counteroffensive was planned in coordination with the US and UK. They're using almost exclusively western/NATO weapons for this offensive. We have far more awareness of Ukraine's offensive capacity today than in February 2022. So it's a mistake to be dismissive of what the Intelligence community is leaking to the Press. Ukraine MAY ultimately surprise us and beat the odds again but for now, the people in the US military and intelligence community who helped Ukraine plan this offensive don't think it's going well and is unlikely to succeed. Objectively, it should be understandable by now why doubts that they will succeed are growing in Western countries.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 20, 2023 11:47:12 GMT -5
What’s true is that back in February 2023, U.S. intelligence thought that Kyiv would fall within days. I'm familiar with those reports but I don't know what their analysis was based on in 2022. For example, there's some evidence that Russia was able to capture huge amounts of territory in southern Ukraine in March 2022 because some high level Ukrainian officials collaborated with the Russians. (see the Reuters article below) Reuters: How Russia spread a secret web of agents across UkraineBased on the above, if our intelligence community had prior knowledge of this problem, perhaps both Russia and the US thought Ukraine's government would quickly fold? The entire Russian-Ukrainian intelligence operation didn't go according to plan. Not all Ukrainian officials helped the Russians but it's believed by Zelensky and other high-ranking Ukrainian officials that Russia was able to quickly capture huge swaths of southern Ukraine due to spies and traitors. So maybe the intelligence assessment was based on the assumption that Ukraine's government was more unstable and infiltrated by Russian intelligence than it turned out to be? None of this hemming and hawing is remotely relevant to the flaws with the reporting or the ‘analysis’ of the anonymous sources
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 21, 2023 10:20:10 GMT -5
Another explanation of why that Washington Post story on Melitopol so widely missed the mark. The piece was wildly illogical and showed that the sources either have no understanding of how war works, or deliberately obfuscated to try and justify themselves. I will point out three of the weird problems with the piece—starting from the very beginning. The story opened with this paragraph. The story then provided a map which actually shows that Ukraine doesnt need to reach Melitopol to functionally divide Russian forces on the Kherson/Dnipro front from those in the east. All the Ukrainians need to do is deny the Russians all road and rail access into Kherson from anywhere in except Crimea, and they would have actually done the job of dividing the forces. At that point, as the map makes clear, all they really need to do is approach Melitopol to achieve that. The roads go in and out of Melitopol and what Ukraine needs to be able to do is exert fire control over those roads. It actually doesnt nee to occupy the city. Whats even weirder, is the story actually assumes the Ukrainians could get very close to Melitopol—remaining only ‘several miles’ outside the city. If Ukraine actually gets within several miles of Melitopol, I can assure you that the counteroffensive will going fine. The actual quote in the article about that is excerpted below. Having started with a confused and non-sensical criticism, the article pivoted to the most pathetic example of blaming the Ukrainians that I have seen in a major piece. Why wont the Ukrainians reach Melitopol? Well the piece first talks about the depth of Russian defenses—which Im sure anyone reading this substack will know about. The Ukrainians have an extremely difficult task in trying to advance into defensive weaponry without air supremacy. However, instead of accepting that reality (amazingly the article never mentions air power once), the anonymous sources blame the Ukrainians for not continuing to bash their forces against Russians defenses. This really is weird, saying the Ukrainian reluctance to accept casualties somehow kept them from achieving a breakthrough. The paragraphs of convuluted reasoning seem to conclude because Ukraine had a success in a war game, it would have it on the battlefield. It was fascinating to see how this one story changed a narrative, because what was going on in the battlefield showed the continuation of the Ukrainian campaign to degrade Russian power, push the Russians back slowly, and lay the groundwork (hopefully) for future advances. Indeed up through Wednesday the Ukrainians seem to be having some success going about their business. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-42
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 21, 2023 12:16:19 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 22, 2023 2:18:37 GMT -5
/photo/1
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 22, 2023 2:24:33 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 22, 2023 14:02:17 GMT -5
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Post by stevez51 on Aug 22, 2023 16:15:03 GMT -5
JIM you need to stop treating this like some video game where you move troops and have tank battles. This isn't Call of Duty. These are real people dying.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 22, 2023 20:48:56 GMT -5
JIM you need to stop treating this like some video game where you move troops and have tank battles. This isn't Call of Duty. These are real people dying. No $hit $herlock. Why don't you go over to the other thread and learn a little about the ethnic cleansing campaign Russia is conducting in the occupied territories. baltimoresunreunited.freeforums.net/thread/13815/russia-committing-genocide-ukraine-reportThere's a reason the Ukrainians are fighting so hard to liberate their fellow citizens from Moscow's brutal repression
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 4:01:36 GMT -5
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