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Post by Rael on Aug 23, 2023 12:58:28 GMT -5
Russia I think can sustain the war at this intensity longer than Ukraine due to their population size and the fact that they’re self-sufficient. They’re able to produce enough hardware and ammo to sustain their operations in Ukraine. So it may take the Russians longer to reach the point where they give up on trying to take more territory. The risk for Ukraine in a long war of attrition though is, what happens if they run dangerously low on manpower? Would they even be able to put up an adequate defense if they burn through too many of their soldiers in these offensive operations? I think that’s a real question that they have to be considering at this point. I think if Ukraine is going to lose this war and most of the country gets absorbed into Russia, Ukraine is essentially telling Russia, "Pry it from our cold dead fingers." Maybe it's better to die on your feet than get executed down the road by Putin while sitting on the ground. Just ask Prigozhin how well those deals with Putin hold up. Oh, wait, you can't...
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Post by pickle20 on Aug 23, 2023 13:00:55 GMT -5
I think if Ukraine is going to lose this war and most of the country gets absorbed into Russia, Ukraine is essentially telling Russia, "Pry it from our cold dead fingers." Maybe it's better to die on your feet than get executed down the road by Putin while sitting on the ground. Just ask Prigozhin how well those deals with Putin hold up. Oh, wait, you can't... SF has blinders on. Everyone else knows who Putin is and what he does to those who challenge him. Ukrainians probably know this better than anyone else.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 13:01:22 GMT -5
Russia I think can sustain the war at this intensity longer than Ukraine due to their population size and the fact that they’re self-sufficient. They’re able to produce enough hardware and ammo to sustain their operations in Ukraine. So it may take the Russians longer to reach the point where they give up on trying to take more territory. The risk for Ukraine in a long war of attrition though is, what happens if they run dangerously low on manpower? Would they even be able to put up an adequate defense if they burn through too many of their soldiers in these offensive operations? I think that’s a real question that they have to be considering at this point. I think if Ukraine is going to lose this war and most of the country gets absorbed into Russia, Ukraine is essentially telling Russia, "Pry it from our cold dead fingers." Maybe it's better to die on your feet than get executed down the road by Putin while sitting on the ground. What over the last year makes you believe Russia is capable of taking over all of Ukraine? And if Ukraine is wasting thousands of their soldiers on offensives that have a low probability of success, aren’t they making it easier for Russia to accomplish their maximalist goals via attrition? All I’m saying is they may not be able to capture the territory they’ve lost but they CAN defend the territory they control. They’ve already proven that they are good at defense. If Ukraine keeps failing at offensives, what’s your end game for the war? Realistically, not how you wish for it to end…
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 13:03:29 GMT -5
I think if Ukraine is going to lose this war and most of the country gets absorbed into Russia, Ukraine is essentially telling Russia, "Pry it from our cold dead fingers." Maybe it's better to die on your feet than get executed down the road by Putin while sitting on the ground. Just ask Prigozhin how well those deals with Putin hold up. Oh, wait, you can't... I’ve already moved on from thinking a peace deal is probable. Neither side is willing to compromise. Putin isn’t asking for peace talks. Zelensky isn’t asking for peace talks. This is either going to end in a frozen conflict or with an escalation to world war 3. Are you willing to sacrifice Americans for Crimea? (Please don’t dodge that question. I really want to know how important Ukraine is to you)
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Post by pickle20 on Aug 23, 2023 13:04:51 GMT -5
I think if Ukraine is going to lose this war and most of the country gets absorbed into Russia, Ukraine is essentially telling Russia, "Pry it from our cold dead fingers." Maybe it's better to die on your feet than get executed down the road by Putin while sitting on the ground. What over the last year makes you believe Russia is capable of taking over all of Ukraine? And if Ukraine is wasting thousands of their soldiers on offensives that have a low probability of success, aren’t they making it easier for Russia to accomplish their maximalist goals via attrition? All I’m saying is they may not be able to capture the territory they’ve lost but they CAN defend the territory they control. They’ve already proven that they are good at defense. If Ukraine keeps failing at offensives, what’s your end game for the war? Realistically, not how you wish for it to end… You were just speculating about what happens if Ukraine runs low un manpower. What do you think happens if that occurs? That Russia is just going to stop at the borders of the ethnic Russian oblasts they now occupy? They'll take everything they can and start making eyes at Moldova. I think Ukraine should be open to compromise, but Russia should too and so far neither side is willing to do that. I think it likely ends in a stalemate with little to no negotiations occurring and this conflict lasting well into the future. There are ongoing border disputes that have lasted decades...even longer. Probably going to be seeing this one last a good while.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 13:08:05 GMT -5
What over the last year makes you believe Russia is capable of taking over all of Ukraine? And if Ukraine is wasting thousands of their soldiers on offensives that have a low probability of success, aren’t they making it easier for Russia to accomplish their maximalist goals via attrition? All I’m saying is they may not be able to capture the territory they’ve lost but they CAN defend the territory they control. They’ve already proven that they are good at defense. If Ukraine keeps failing at offensives, what’s your end game for the war? Realistically, not how you wish for it to end… You were just speculating about what happens if Ukraine runs low un manpower. What do you think happens if that occurs? That Russia is just going to stop at the borders of the ethnic Russian oblasts they now occupy? They'll take everything they can and start making eyes at Moldova. I think Ukraine should be open to compromise, but Russia should too and so far neither side is willing to do that. I think it likely ends in a stalemate with little to no negotiations occurring and this conflict lasting well into the future. There are ongoing border disputes that have lasted decades...even longer. Probably going to be seeing this one last a good while. I think it’s going to be like North and South Korea (70 years of a cold peace) if it doesn’t escalate to a NATO vs Russia war…
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Post by pickle20 on Aug 23, 2023 13:08:45 GMT -5
You were just speculating about what happens if Ukraine runs low un manpower. What do you think happens if that occurs? That Russia is just going to stop at the borders of the ethnic Russian oblasts they now occupy? They'll take everything they can and start making eyes at Moldova. I think Ukraine should be open to compromise, but Russia should too and so far neither side is willing to do that. I think it likely ends in a stalemate with little to no negotiations occurring and this conflict lasting well into the future. There are ongoing border disputes that have lasted decades...even longer. Probably going to be seeing this one last a good while. I think it’s going to be like North and South Korea (70 years of a cold peace) if it doesn’t escalate to a NATO vs Russia war… Well if Trump becomes President again expect it to be solved on day 1 of his second term.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 23, 2023 13:37:01 GMT -5
That is so not the case. No one here is "cheering on people getting killed." Come on. There’s a lot of cheerleading for offensives Welcome to the 2nd annual 'Soulflower: maybe I should look in the mirror' festival
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 23, 2023 13:38:37 GMT -5
Ukranian cluster shells massacre Russian troops. Yeah go get em baby. Actually they're US cluster bombs. Russia could end this war in one hour by withdrawing and stop their troops from being massacred. It's amazing how many people are having trouble with that basic concept
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 23, 2023 13:41:47 GMT -5
A thought experiment. Let me ask you a question. Let's say Ukraine follows your lead and trades some land for peace. Fast forward 15 years and let's say that Ukraine is stronger and Russia is weaker. Ukraine attacks these new Russian territories in an attempt to reclaim them. Is Ukraine justified in doing so?Yes, but what would be the point? The territory will largely be de-occupied for decades (see Cambodia’s problems with land mines for example) and the few populated areas will likely be occupied by majorities of pro-Russian Ukrainians and Russian civilians. Soulflower is correct. In 15 years, Russia's ethnic cleansing campaign will be complete and there won't be any Ukrainians left in the occupied territories. For Ukraine, it is a race against time. I have to say, I'm kind of shocked to hear him say the quiet part out loud.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 13:51:08 GMT -5
Yes, but what would be the point? The territory will largely be de-occupied for decades (see Cambodia’s problems with land mines for example) and the few populated areas will likely be occupied by majorities of pro-Russian Ukrainians and Russian civilians. Soulflower is correct. In 15 years, Russia's ethnic cleansing campaign will be complete and there won't be any Ukrainians left in the occupied territories. For Ukraine, it is a race against time. I have to say, I'm kind of shocked to hear him say the quiet part out loud. People in eastern Ukraine are voting with their feet. Those who support Russia or don’t want to fight for Ukraine have stayed in Russian occupied areas or sought refuge in Russia. Those who support Ukraine have sought refuge in western Ukraine or Europe. Ukrainian soldiers are on record in several western news articles claiming that they don’t trust the locals in eastern Ukraine because they think many of the people who stayed are waiting for the Russians.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 13:53:02 GMT -5
Russia could end this war in one hour by withdrawing and stop their troops from being massacred. It's amazing how many people are having trouble with that basic concept It’s Fox News level brainlessness. Democrats used to be fact-based. The issues that led to Ukraine’s eight year civil war don’t end when Russia withdraws. Ukraine won’t stop trying to capture Crimea if Russia only withdraws to the borders that existed in February 2022.
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Post by pickle20 on Aug 23, 2023 14:03:02 GMT -5
It's amazing how many people are having trouble with that basic concept It’s Fox News level brainlessness. Democrats used to be fact-based. The issues that led to Ukraine’s eight year civil war don’t end when Russia withdraws. Ukraine won’t stop trying to capture Crimea if Russia only withdraws to the borders that existed in February 2022. Why should they? Russia stole Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. I agree it may be time to let that one go but you seem to think Ukraine and Russia relations should be a one way street where Russia gets to dictate everything and Ukraine should bow down because they're bigger and have more weapons.
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Post by Rael on Aug 23, 2023 14:10:32 GMT -5
Just ask Prigozhin how well those deals with Putin hold up. Oh, wait, you can't... I’ve already moved on from thinking a peace deal is probable. Neither side is willing to compromise. Putin isn’t asking for peace talks. Zelensky isn’t asking for peace talks. This is either going to end in a frozen conflict or with an escalation to world war 3. Are you willing to sacrifice Americans for Crimea? (Please don’t dodge that question. I really want to know how important Ukraine is to you) Ok, but I'm not sure that it is a fair question. I am not willing to get into WWIII over *just* Ukraine. However, I submit that the strong defense of Ukraine may be necessary to avoid WWIII. If you are of the belief that Putin will be satisfied with some small territories of Ukraine and will then become a non expansionist power, peace on the best terms currently possible is by far the best solution. If, however, you believe that Putin has designs greater than the south of Ukraine then standing up to him now decreases the possibility of WWIII.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 14:20:58 GMT -5
It’s Fox News level brainlessness. Democrats used to be fact-based. The issues that led to Ukraine’s eight year civil war don’t end when Russia withdraws. Ukraine won’t stop trying to capture Crimea if Russia only withdraws to the borders that existed in February 2022. Why should they? Russia stole Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. I agree it may be time to let that one go but you seem to think Ukraine and Russia relations should be a one way street where Russia gets to dictate everything and Ukraine should bow down because they're bigger and have more weapons. I don’t think that way at all. War to me is politics with violence and Politics to me is war without violence. I preferred that Russia, NATO, and Ukraine settle their differences via the geopolitical diplomacy route. That failed and now it’s being settled via war. IF Ukraine decisively defeats Russia, they get to decide the terms of surrender. Short of that happening, there will inevitably be compromises made before the war ends or freezes. That’s the way wars have been resolved since the beginning of time. Why should this war be the exception? What annoys me is how some of you think Ukraine should be treated differently from other countries that have been at war in our lifetimes. This war is not unique or the exception…
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 23, 2023 14:21:58 GMT -5
Those who support Ukraine have sought refuge in western Ukraine or Europe. Again, I'm surprised to hear you say the quiet part out loud.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 14:27:04 GMT -5
I’ve already moved on from thinking a peace deal is probable. Neither side is willing to compromise. Putin isn’t asking for peace talks. Zelensky isn’t asking for peace talks. This is either going to end in a frozen conflict or with an escalation to world war 3. Are you willing to sacrifice Americans for Crimea? (Please don’t dodge that question. I really want to know how important Ukraine is to you) Ok, but I'm not sure that it is a fair question. I am not willing to get into WWIII over *just* Ukraine. However, I submit that the strong defense of Ukraine may be necessary to avoid WWIII. If you are of the belief that Putin will be satisfied with some small territories of Ukraine and will then become a non expansionist power, peace on the best terms currently possible is by far the best solution. If, however, you believe that Putin has designs greater than the south of Ukraine then standing up to him now decreases the possibility of WWIII. Okay I’ll bite. Under what circumstances would Putin start a war with NATO that will inevitably end with either him losing the war if it doesn’t go nuclear, or the end of the world if it does? I can’t relate to folks who pretend that Russia is a threat to us. It’s in the same category to me as hyping up the threat Saddam posed to us before the Iraq war. Beyond the wishes of our elites to extend US hegemony into Russia’s backyard, we don’t have much at stake in Ukraine.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 14:29:26 GMT -5
Those who support Ukraine have sought refuge in western Ukraine or Europe. Again, I'm surprised to hear you say the quiet part out loud. That war displaces people? That’s the quiet part? Do you think the Palestinians fled Israel for fun? Do you think the millions of middle eastern refugees who came to Europe in the 2010s were unrelated to the wars we were involved in in the Middle East?
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Post by pickle20 on Aug 23, 2023 14:32:31 GMT -5
Why should they? Russia stole Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. I agree it may be time to let that one go but you seem to think Ukraine and Russia relations should be a one way street where Russia gets to dictate everything and Ukraine should bow down because they're bigger and have more weapons. I don’t think that way at all. War to me is politics with violence and Politics to me is war without violence. I preferred that Russia, NATO, and Ukraine settle their differences via the geopolitical diplomacy route. That failed and now it’s being settled via war. IF Ukraine decisively defeats Russia, they get to decide the terms of surrender. Short of that happening, there will inevitably be compromises made before the war ends or freezes. That’s the way wars have been resolved since the beginning of time. Why should this war be the exception? What annoys me is how some of you think Ukraine should be treated differently from other countries that have been at war in our lifetimes. This war is not unique or the exception… And Russia ended that diplomacy with an invasion. Excuse us for seeing what Putin truly is and hoping Ukraine isn't wiped off the map.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 23, 2023 14:33:47 GMT -5
Again, I'm surprised to hear you say the quiet part out loud. That war displaces people? That’s the quiet part? Do you think the Palestinians fled Israel for fun? The difference between you and me is that I can say, categorically, that what Israel has done to the Palestinians is horrific and should be condemned. It's not a 'war', it is a genocidal invasion for territorial conquest launched by Putin. Stop trying to sugar coat it.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 14:36:22 GMT -5
I don’t think that way at all. War to me is politics with violence and Politics to me is war without violence. I preferred that Russia, NATO, and Ukraine settle their differences via the geopolitical diplomacy route. That failed and now it’s being settled via war. IF Ukraine decisively defeats Russia, they get to decide the terms of surrender. Short of that happening, there will inevitably be compromises made before the war ends or freezes. That’s the way wars have been resolved since the beginning of time. Why should this war be the exception? What annoys me is how some of you think Ukraine should be treated differently from other countries that have been at war in our lifetimes. This war is not unique or the exception… And Russia ended that diplomacy with an invasion. Excuse us for seeing what Putin truly is and hoping Ukraine isn't wiped off the map. You can pout all you want. I told you that I’ve moved on from expecting either side to end the war via peace agreement. So your wish of seeing more Ukrainians die senselessly to kill Russians most likely will be granted while my wish to see the war end as soon as possible likely won’t…
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 23, 2023 14:38:02 GMT -5
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Post by pickle20 on Aug 23, 2023 14:38:46 GMT -5
And Russia ended that diplomacy with an invasion. Excuse us for seeing what Putin truly is and hoping Ukraine isn't wiped off the map. You can pout all you want. I told you that I’ve moved on from expecting either side to end the war via peace agreement. So your wish of seeing more Ukrainians die senselessly to kill Russians most likely will be granted while my wish to see the war end as soon as possible likely won’t… I want to see a bully put in his place. You want the bullied to hand over half his lunch money knowing another beating will come in the near future.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 14:39:01 GMT -5
That war displaces people? That’s the quiet part? Do you think the Palestinians fled Israel for fun? The difference between you and me is that I can say, categorically, that what Israel has done to the Palestinians is horrific and should be condemned. It's not a 'war', it is a genocidal invasion for territorial conquest launched by Putin. Stop trying to sugar coat it. The only one “sugarcoating” is you because you don’t acknowledge the heavy human toll Ukraine is suffering for incremental changes on the map. War is hell to me no matter where it happens. I don’t view this war as any worse than what has happened in the Middle East over the last three decades…
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 14:41:31 GMT -5
You can pout all you want. I told you that I’ve moved on from expecting either side to end the war via peace agreement. So your wish of seeing more Ukrainians die senselessly to kill Russians most likely will be granted while my wish to see the war end as soon as possible likely won’t… I want to see a bully put in his place. You want the bullied to hand over half his lunch money knowing another beating will come in the near future. I just want Ukrainians and Russians to live in peace. I won’t apologize for not having hate in my heart towards people that I don’t know. I’ve been an anti-war advocate my entire life. Neither Trump nor Putin will change my opinions about politics or preferring diplomacy over endless and unnecessary war. And I stand by my view that unconditional support and blank checks for Ukraine are crazy given how little that country affects our national interests…
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 23, 2023 14:54:58 GMT -5
The difference between you and me is that I can say, categorically, that what Israel has done to the Palestinians is horrific and should be condemned. It's not a 'war', it is a genocidal invasion for territorial conquest launched by Putin. Stop trying to sugar coat it. The only one “sugarcoating” is you because you don’t acknowledge the heavy human toll Ukraine is suffering for incremental changes on the map. War is hell to me no matter where it happens. I don’t view this war as any worse than what has happened in the Middle East over the last three decades… Hogwash, you'll note that I posted an item about the horrific casualties in Ukraine on this thread. What's hilarious is that the people who are suddenly so 'concerned' about the Ukrainian fighters never say jack $hit or even downright rationalize the systemic torture, rapes, forced deportations, child abductions, and summary executions that Putin's forces have been inflicting on the Ukrainians in the occupied territories. Not to mention Russia's practice of indiscriminately lobbing missiles into residential areas, hospitals, and cultural centers dozens or even hundreds of miles from the front.
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Post by Rael on Aug 23, 2023 15:37:07 GMT -5
You can pout all you want. I told you that I’ve moved on from expecting either side to end the war via peace agreement. So your wish of seeing more Ukrainians die senselessly to kill Russians most likely will be granted while my wish to see the war end as soon as possible likely won’t… I want to see a bully put in his place. You want the bullied to hand over half his lunch money knowing another beating will come in the near future. This is unfair. You attribute bad intentions to SF where a naive belief would suffice.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 15:39:17 GMT -5
The only one “sugarcoating” is you because you don’t acknowledge the heavy human toll Ukraine is suffering for incremental changes on the map. War is hell to me no matter where it happens. I don’t view this war as any worse than what has happened in the Middle East over the last three decades… Hogwash, you'll note that I posted an item about the horrific casualties in Ukraine on this thread. What's hilarious is that the people who are suddenly so 'concerned' about the Ukrainian fighters never say jack $hit or even downright rationalize the systemic torture, rapes, forced deportations, child abductions, and summary executions that Putin's forces have been inflicting on the Ukrainians in the occupied territories. Not to mention Russia's practice of indiscriminately lobbing missiles into residential areas, hospitals, and cultural centers dozens or even hundreds of miles from the front. Can you name a war that lasted more than a year and involved no war crimes? I’m trying to understand why you’re implying that this war is somehow unique? Does the ugly nature of war not apply in eastern Europe? I don’t know why it bothers you that I say “the only way to stop those things from happening is to end the war…”
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Post by soulflower on Aug 23, 2023 15:43:54 GMT -5
I want to see a bully put in his place. You want the bullied to hand over half his lunch money knowing another beating will come in the near future. This is unfair. You attribute bad intentions to SF where a naive belief would suffice. I’m not naive and Pickle has no idea what I believe. He hasn’t read most of the books I’ve read or experienced the things I’ve experienced in my life. We bring our own biases and life experiences to this argument. Sometimes you just have to accept that I don’t see this situation the same way that you do. We don’t agree on the root causes of the war or the best way forward. Given that you don’t personally know me, there’s no reason to imply or assume that I’m “naive” or don’t honestly want what I think is best for Ukraine. Sorry to put it so bluntly but it’s insulting to put it in those dismissive terms…
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 23, 2023 15:45:18 GMT -5
Hogwash, you'll note that I posted an item about the horrific casualties in Ukraine on this thread. What's hilarious is that the people who are suddenly so 'concerned' about the Ukrainian fighters never say jack $hit or even downright rationalize the systemic torture, rapes, forced deportations, child abductions, and summary executions that Putin's forces have been inflicting on the Ukrainians in the occupied territories. Not to mention Russia's practice of indiscriminately lobbing missiles into residential areas, hospitals, and cultural centers dozens or even hundreds of miles from the front. Can you name a war that lasted more than a year and involved no war crimes? I’m trying to understand why you’re implying that this war is somehow unique? Does the ugly nature of war not apply in eastern Europe? I don’t know why it bothers you that I say “the only way to stop those things from happening is to end the war…” I can name a couple of wars where the principal belligerent instituted systemic war crimes as a matter of policy but your head would explode in a frothing rage. 'Everybody does it' is a bad excuse after your mom catches you with a joint in your book bag. It is a moral failing when it is used to deflect attention away from Putin's genocidal invasion for territorial conquest in Ukraine. There could be a cease fire tomorrow and the systemic rape, torture, deportations, summary executions, and destruction of cultural heritage would continue in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts.
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