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Post by pickle20 on Jan 5, 2024 13:03:48 GMT -5
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Post by vosa on Jan 5, 2024 13:07:30 GMT -5
I am not willing to endorse the death penalty for a property crime (in general, I oppose it). But they do need to punish offenders and take that crime more seriously.And as an aside: be careful. When you start discussing hangings, particularly without due process and particularly in this context, you are tap dancing on a land mine. Neither am I. But, you verified my point with the second bolded line. As I stated, I am willing to give people ...... especially 'kids'....whatever a kid means nowadays a chance or break even after multiple offenses. But I think it has to be obvious to even a blind person that the excuse that these 'kids' after several run in's with the legal system have to be corralled and separated from normal society. Sweet Jesus we agree on something! Give these little thugs a chance. Give them a break. Give them milk and cookies. Psychoanalyze them. Medicate them. Teach them a marketable skill. But keep them away from decent, law abiding people while you're doing it.
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Post by vosa on Jan 5, 2024 13:14:28 GMT -5
As were juvenile carjackings and auto theft (The statisticians may consider them the same thing. IDK) But wherever it is if it's got the word "juvenile" in front of it it's Schiraldi's job to fix it.
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Post by guido2 on Jan 5, 2024 18:51:59 GMT -5
To be warm and hopeful that the Mayors efforts are working.
To be a realist that looks at numbers.
I am guessing that the 'senior' trigger pullers are either dead, or in jail, or working for some intervention group. (This year) So that leaves the Sophomore and Freshmen classes, produced by the above. They are still in training (starting with car jacking) by the Junior class that is probably just about ready to jump to fill the gap left by the seniors ..... that will bring the murder rate up again.
Meanwhile the Soph and Fresh. classes are producing the next 'classes'.
Sorry I have looked at the numbers going back two decades, and even when the numbers were way below 300 even then it was up and down, the law or street justice knocked down the trigger pullers..... and ..... give it a year or three and it went back up.
It was always like looking at a wave chart.
But we shall see.
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Post by augustwest on Jan 9, 2024 7:16:29 GMT -5
To be warm and hopeful that the Mayors efforts are working. To be a realist that looks at numbers. I am guessing that the 'senior' trigger pullers are either dead, or in jail, or working for some intervention group. (This year) So that leaves the Sophomore and Freshmen classes, produced by the above. They are still in training (starting with car jacking) by the Junior class that is probably just about ready to jump to fill the gap left by the seniors ..... that will bring the murder rate up again. Meanwhile the Soph and Fresh. classes are producing the next 'classes'. Sorry I have looked at the numbers going back two decades, and even when the numbers were way below 300 even then it was up and down, the law or street justice knocked down the trigger pullers..... and ..... give it a year or three and it went back up. It was always like looking at a wave chart. But we shall see. I second this. For decades the Mayor and Police Chief have been taking the blame and credit for the ebb and flow of national crime trends and the lack/presence of instability of gang turf wars. While they have done little beyond arresting the soldiers and an occasional kingpin that is quickly replaced. All across the country the current crop of city leaders will ride out the rest of their careers making speeches and working as consultants talking about everything they did in 2023 to reduce the homicide rates by X% in 2023.
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Post by pickle20 on Mar 20, 2024 12:10:50 GMT -5
Through 80 days there has been 47 homicides in Baltimore. Average that out for entire year (47*4.6) and you come to 216 homicides for 2024.
If that is remotely close to being accurate, consider how homicides would have dropped over a 2 year period:
2022: 334 2023: 262 2024: 216 (estimate)
That would be a 35% reduction in homicides in a two year period. I know Mayor Scott is not very highly thought of around here and it's debatable how responsible he'd be for this drop in homicides, but this would be an incredible resume builder.
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Post by alienrace on Mar 20, 2024 12:21:23 GMT -5
That would be a 35% reduction in homicides in a two year period. I know Mayor Scott is not very highly thought of around here and it's debatable how responsible he'd be for this drop in homicides, but this would be an incredible resume builder. Sure would, and really positive news for a city that could use it in that arena.
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Post by guido2 on Mar 20, 2024 15:47:02 GMT -5
Through 80 days there has been 47 homicides in Baltimore. Average that out for entire year (47*4.6) and you come to 216 homicides for 2024. If that is remotely close to being accurate, consider how homicides would have dropped over a 2 year period: 2022: 334 2023: 262 2024: 216 (estimate) That would be a 35% reduction in homicides in a two year period. I know Mayor Scott is not very highly thought of around here and it's debatable how responsible he'd be for this drop in homicides, but this would be an incredible resume builder. I think and am hopeful that the initiatives that Scott has put in place and/or supported are really working. Maybe there is something to having a working system of social support, intervention and so on. That said ..... and not to be a Debbie Downer, but my suspicion is that we're are in a birth lull. What I mean is that, very much like rockfish, crabs, and oysters. There are years when there is plenty of spawn and they will grow up and years later become 'adults' to catch. Equally, there are years that weather conditions, water conditions, prevent breeding and then there is the 'bad catch' years that follow for adult seafood. I am NOT and repeat NOT, saying this is the case in Baltimore. IOWs that essentially the varsity team is dead or in jail and the JV team is not old enough to hold a gun.... yet. My only supporting fact regarding that, is the increase in juvenile crime (see General Assembly addressing that, it must be important to change laws) they are worried the JV team is going varsity soon. So I guess I am not alone in my thinking about the "lull". Again, I repeat I am very hopeful that Scott's initiatives are working. But only time will tell I guess.
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Post by pickle20 on Mar 20, 2024 20:08:09 GMT -5
Through 80 days there has been 47 homicides in Baltimore. Average that out for entire year (47*4.6) and you come to 216 homicides for 2024. If that is remotely close to being accurate, consider how homicides would have dropped over a 2 year period: 2022: 334 2023: 262 2024: 216 (estimate) That would be a 35% reduction in homicides in a two year period. I know Mayor Scott is not very highly thought of around here and it's debatable how responsible he'd be for this drop in homicides, but this would be an incredible resume builder. I think and am hopeful that the initiatives that Scott has put in place and/or supported are really working. Maybe there is something to having a working system of social support, intervention and so on. That said ..... and not to be a Debbie Downer, but my suspicion is that we're are in a birth lull. What I mean is that, very much like rockfish, crabs, and oysters. There are years when there is plenty of spawn and they will grow up and years later become 'adults' to catch. Equally, there are years that weather conditions, water conditions, prevent breeding and then there is the 'bad catch' years that follow for adult seafood. I am NOT and repeat NOT, saying this is the case in Baltimore. IOWs that essentially the varsity team is dead or in jail and the JV team is not old enough to hold a gun.... yet. My only supporting fact regarding that, is the increase in juvenile crime (see General Assembly addressing that, it must be important to change laws) they are worried the JV team is going varsity soon. So I guess I am not alone in my thinking about the "lull". Again, I repeat I am very hopeful that Scott's initiatives are working. But only time will tell I guess. Yeah but you forget what set off the spike in Baltimore homicides in the first place. Freddy Gray. The stats back this up. And I don’t think what you say would apply to such a drastic decrease if current tends hold up until the end of the year. You could say it if 2024 goes back to 2022 levels but so far it appears we’re on a downward trend. We’ll just have to wait and see. Warmer weather unfortunately means more homicides.
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Post by guido2 on Mar 21, 2024 14:51:55 GMT -5
I think and am hopeful that the initiatives that Scott has put in place and/or supported are really working. Maybe there is something to having a working system of social support, intervention and so on. That said ..... and not to be a Debbie Downer, but my suspicion is that we're are in a birth lull. What I mean is that, very much like rockfish, crabs, and oysters. There are years when there is plenty of spawn and they will grow up and years later become 'adults' to catch. Equally, there are years that weather conditions, water conditions, prevent breeding and then there is the 'bad catch' years that follow for adult seafood. I am NOT and repeat NOT, saying this is the case in Baltimore. IOWs that essentially the varsity team is dead or in jail and the JV team is not old enough to hold a gun.... yet. My only supporting fact regarding that, is the increase in juvenile crime (see General Assembly addressing that, it must be important to change laws) they are worried the JV team is going varsity soon. So I guess I am not alone in my thinking about the "lull". Again, I repeat I am very hopeful that Scott's initiatives are working. But only time will tell I guess. And I don’t think what you say would apply to such a drastic decrease if current tends hold up until the end of the year. You could say it if 2024 goes back to 2022 levels but so far it appears we’re on a downward trend. We’ll just have to wait and see. Warmer weather unfortunately means more homicides. Oh, you are correct, as I said, I think/hope that it is the initiatives, not a birth rate anomaly. On the other hand, initiatives like connecting low income people especially mothers and her kids with social services and help, may be helping. IOWs by analogy, treating a patient as early as possible more times than not prevents bad and more expensive outcomes. In this case people picking up guns to 'get' what they need. As you said..... only time will tell. 🤞
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