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Post by Ranger John on Aug 14, 2023 9:55:52 GMT -5
I've seen a few times that the sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU and US haven't worked. Today, the Ruble crashed through the 100 to the dollar level again. It spiked right after the invasion, then recovered. This appears to be a more economically driven problem as opposed to an over-reaction to the war.
More info:
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Post by kandace on Aug 14, 2023 10:09:50 GMT -5
The US of A’s addiction to/obsession with sanctioning any nation that looks at it cross-eyed is undermining world stability to a significant degree. Trying to dominate and bully Russia just serves to empower Putin, just as the same strategy has empowered the Mullahs in Iran.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 10:24:31 GMT -5
It’s complicated but the lower value of Ruble will help make it easier for Russia to export grain and other goods (while Ukraine will struggle to export their grain outside of Europe). Countries sometimes devalue their currency to increase export trade. Also, Russia’s economy is projected to grow modestly this year while some EU economies are in recession. Fair to conclude that the Western sanctions policies failed at this point. Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-11/russia-s-war-economy-is-on-course-to-recover-from-sanctions-hit
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Post by workerbee on Aug 14, 2023 10:30:53 GMT -5
The US of A’s addiction to/obsession with sanctioning any nation that looks at it cross-eyed is undermining world stability to a significant degree. Trying to dominate and bully Russia just serves to empower Putin, just as the same strategy has empowered the Mullahs in Iran. And president Trump... don't forget president Trump.
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Post by Ranger John on Aug 14, 2023 10:32:45 GMT -5
It’s complicated but the lower value of Ruble will help make it easier for Russia to export grain and other goods (while Ukraine will struggle to export their grain outside of Europe). Countries sometimes devalue their currency to increase export trade. Also, Russia’s economy is projected to grow modestly this year while some EU economies are in recession. Fair to conclude that the Western sanctions policies failed at this point. Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-11/russia-s-war-economy-is-on-course-to-recover-from-sanctions-hitThe problem with this theory is Russian exports are devalued already because much of the world is refusing to purchase them. Their energy exports have moved to places like China and India. But China's economy is also crashing - their manufacturing sector is in a terrible state - so whatever demand they're seeing from China is probably not stable either. Continuing to devalue currency (and I don't think the Russian central bank is attempting to do that) is starting to run the very real risk of putting the country in a place where their exports cost more to produce than they earn in the market.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 10:44:18 GMT -5
It’s complicated but the lower value of Ruble will help make it easier for Russia to export grain and other goods (while Ukraine will struggle to export their grain outside of Europe). Countries sometimes devalue their currency to increase export trade. Also, Russia’s economy is projected to grow modestly this year while some EU economies are in recession. Fair to conclude that the Western sanctions policies failed at this point. Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-11/russia-s-war-economy-is-on-course-to-recover-from-sanctions-hit The problem with this theory is Russian exports are devalued already because much of the world is refusing to purchase them. Their energy exports have moved to places like China and India. But China's economy is also crashing - their manufacturing sector is in a terrible state - so whatever demand they're seeing from China is probably not stable either. Continuing to devalue currency (and I don't think the Russian central bank is attempting to do that) is starting to run the very real risk of putting the country in a place where their exports cost more to produce than they earn in the market. It’s not in theory. The actual economic numbers show that Russia’s economy is recovering from the impact of the sanctions. Most countries outside of Europe are doing business as usual with Russia. India and Brazil have even increased trade with Russia since the start of the invasion. Russia’s biggest economic problem currently is their demographics. They don’t have enough labor to support increases in demand which will increase inflation.
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Post by Ranger John on Aug 14, 2023 11:53:17 GMT -5
The problem with this theory is Russian exports are devalued already because much of the world is refusing to purchase them. Their energy exports have moved to places like China and India. But China's economy is also crashing - their manufacturing sector is in a terrible state - so whatever demand they're seeing from China is probably not stable either. Continuing to devalue currency (and I don't think the Russian central bank is attempting to do that) is starting to run the very real risk of putting the country in a place where their exports cost more to produce than they earn in the market. It’s not in theory. The actual economic numbers show that Russia’s economy is recovering from the impact of the sanctions. Most countries outside of Europe are doing business as usual with Russia. India and Brazil have even increased trade with Russia since the start of the invasion. Russia’s biggest economic problem currently is their demographics. They don’t have enough labor to support increases in demand which will increase inflation. What numbers? The value of the currency certainly doesn't show it. Nor do Russia's export numbers - and it's an export driven economy. www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/economy/russia-ruble-slump-ukraine-war/index.htmlTheir production capacity has also taken a hit because all the men who used to work in the factories are in Putin's meat grinder in Ukraine. And the government is running out of ways to pay for said meat grinder.
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Post by Rael on Aug 14, 2023 11:58:17 GMT -5
I read today how the ruble is now worth less than a penny and some major tv figures in Russia are saying it is making them a laughingstock. Sounds like there is some effect, especially psychologically.
If you used to sell 10 barrels of oil for the equivalent of $800 and now are selling 20 barrels for the equivalent of $7 it seems quite a stretch of logic to tout the doubling of your exports as some kind of victory.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 12:28:04 GMT -5
I read today how the ruble is now worth less than a penny and some major tv figures in Russia are saying it is making them a laughingstock. Sounds like there is some effect, especially psychologically. If you used to sell 10 barrels of oil for the equivalent of $800 and now are selling 20 barrels for the equivalent of $7 it seems quite a stretch of logic to tout the doubling of your exports as some kind of victory. Weak currency isn’t always a bad thing. Stronger currencies usually weaken exports. Russia exported record totals of grain between 2022 and 2023. www.graincentral.com/markets/russian-wheat-exports-continue-at-record-pace/See my post and the Bloomberg article above (dated from last week). EU countries and even the US are still buying Russian oil via third-parties like India. We have to call a spade a spade. While Putin miscalculated by invading Ukraine, the west miscalculated by thinking we could “crush” (in Biden’s own words) Russia’s economy. The reality is Russia is a major energy and grain exporter. Those commodities are too valuable for them to be completely economically isolated. The fact is, this war is at a stalemate. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will be able to get everything they want before the war ends. They will either make compromises or they will freeze the conflict indefinitely. The sooner everyone accepts the futility of attempting to destroy or force regime change in Russia, the better for the entire world. Bloomberg News: The turnaround is defying predictions of a prolonged slump in response to the sanctions imposed over the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Increased defense spending has boosted industrial production while consumer demand is gaining momentum amid greater outlays on social support and higher wages.
GDP may reach its pre-war size by the middle of next year, said Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS Financial Group, who forecasts 2% growth in 2023.
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Post by Rael on Aug 14, 2023 12:30:45 GMT -5
I read today how the ruble is now worth less than a penny and some major tv figures in Russia are saying it is making them a laughingstock. Sounds like there is some effect, especially psychologically. If you used to sell 10 barrels of oil for the equivalent of $800 and now are selling 20 barrels for the equivalent of $7 it seems quite a stretch of logic to tout the doubling of your exports as some kind of victory. Weak currency isn’t always a bad thing. Stronger currencies usually weaken exports. Russia exported record totals of grain between 2022 and 2023. This is only true if the ultimate value of what you export increases. As I said, if you export twice as much and receive half as much in return, that is a net loss for your economy. Having the ruble be worth less than a penny is not a good thing for the Russian economy, no matter how much spin you put on it.
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Post by Ranger John on Aug 14, 2023 12:35:52 GMT -5
I read today how the ruble is now worth less than a penny and some major tv figures in Russia are saying it is making them a laughingstock. Sounds like there is some effect, especially psychologically. If you used to sell 10 barrels of oil for the equivalent of $800 and now are selling 20 barrels for the equivalent of $7 it seems quite a stretch of logic to tout the doubling of your exports as some kind of victory. Weak currency isn’t always a bad thing. Stronger currencies usually weaken exports. Russia exported record totals of grain between 2022 and 2023. www.graincentral.com/markets/russian-wheat-exports-continue-at-record-pace/See my post and the Bloomberg article above (dated from last week). EU countries and even the US are still buying Russian oil via third-parties like India. We have to call a spade a spade. While Putin miscalculated by invading Ukraine, the west miscalculated by thinking we could “crush” (in Biden’s own words) Russia’s economy. The reality is Russia is a major energy and grain exporter. Those commodities are too valuable for them to be completely economically isolated. The fact is, this war is at a stalemate. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will be able to get everything they want before the war ends. They will either make compromises or they will freeze the conflict indefinitely. The sooner everyone accepts the futility of attempting to destroy or force regime change in Russia, the better for the entire world. Bloomberg News: The turnaround is defying predictions of a prolonged slump in response to the sanctions imposed over the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Increased defense spending has boosted industrial production while consumer demand is gaining momentum amid greater outlays on social support and higher wages.
GDP may reach its pre-war size by the middle of next year, said Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS Financial Group, who forecasts 2% growth in 2023.A currency that loses 10% of it's value does create certain trading advantages for the home country. A currency that loses 40% of it's value is the mark of a collapsed economy.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 12:51:58 GMT -5
Weak currency isn’t always a bad thing. Stronger currencies usually weaken exports. Russia exported record totals of grain between 2022 and 2023. This is only true if the ultimate value of what you export increases. As I said, if you export twice as much and receive half as much in return, that is a net loss for your economy. Having the ruble be worth less than a penny is not a good thing for the Russian economy, no matter how much spin you put on it. We’ll have to agree to disagree. The global economic consensus is that: A - Russia’s economy has recovered from the 2022 sanctions and B - Their economy is projected to grow through next year. Focusing on their weak currency seems like cope. Russia won’t win the war in Ukraine but their economy is strong enough to sustain the war at the current rate indefinitely. The only question is, should we double-down and send more weapons to Ukraine? Or should we look for ways to de-escalate?
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Post by Ranger John on Aug 14, 2023 12:54:18 GMT -5
This is only true if the ultimate value of what you export increases. As I said, if you export twice as much and receive half as much in return, that is a net loss for your economy. Having the ruble be worth less than a penny is not a good thing for the Russian economy, no matter how much spin you put on it. We’ll have to agree to disagree. The global economic consensus is that: A - Russia’s economy has recovered from the 2022 sanctions and B - Their economy is projected to grow through next year. Focusing on their weak currency seems like cope. Russia won’t win the war in Ukraine but their economy is strong enough to sustain the war at the current rate indefinitely. The only question is, should we double-down and send more weapons to Ukraine? Or should we look for ways to de-escalate? Is that anything like the "scientific consensus"? The actual numbers do not support your assertions.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 13:02:46 GMT -5
We’ll have to agree to disagree. The global economic consensus is that: A - Russia’s economy has recovered from the 2022 sanctions and B - Their economy is projected to grow through next year. Focusing on their weak currency seems like cope. Russia won’t win the war in Ukraine but their economy is strong enough to sustain the war at the current rate indefinitely. The only question is, should we double-down and send more weapons to Ukraine? Or should we look for ways to de-escalate? Is that anything like the "scientific consensus"? The actual numbers do not support your assertions. You’re looking at the wrong numbers. The sky isn’t falling. Moscow Times: Kremlin Unfazed as Ruble Crashes Through 100 vs. Dollar A weaker ruble means Russia can buy more arms, ammunition and pay higher salaries for soldiers, making devaluation an attractive short-term solution to the Kremlin’s budget woes and its top priority — funding the invasion of Ukraine. Battling inflation and dealing with the other domestic costs of a weak currency, can come later.
“It’s more important to get through the next few months, or until spring, and in the long run, if things turn out worse because of this, then it doesn't really matter. It matters, but what matters much more is the ability to be able to wage war and pay bills in the next 4-6 months,” Iikka Korhonen, head of the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT), said of the Kremlin’s logic.
With spending on the war the Kremlin’s overriding priority, analysts are poised for potentially drastic action from the Central Bank, whose main task since the invasion has been to mitigate the domestic economic impacts of Russia’s war.
Responding to the currency's slide, the Central Bank on Monday afternoon said its board of directors would hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday — its first extraordinary session since Feb. 28, 2022 — where it is set to raise interest rates from their current level of 8.5%.www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/14/kremlin-unfazed-as-ruble-crashes-through-100-vs-dollar-a82145(The Moscow Times is a pro-Western news outlet)
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Post by Ranger John on Aug 14, 2023 13:26:35 GMT -5
Is that anything like the "scientific consensus"? The actual numbers do not support your assertions. You’re looking at the wrong numbers. The sky isn’t falling. Moscow Times: Kremlin Unfazed as Ruble Crashes Through 100 vs. Dollar A weaker ruble means Russia can buy more arms, ammunition and pay higher salaries for soldiers, making devaluation an attractive short-term solution to the Kremlin’s budget woes and its top priority — funding the invasion of Ukraine. Battling inflation and dealing with the other domestic costs of a weak currency, can come later.
“It’s more important to get through the next few months, or until spring, and in the long run, if things turn out worse because of this, then it doesn't really matter. It matters, but what matters much more is the ability to be able to wage war and pay bills in the next 4-6 months,” Iikka Korhonen, head of the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT), said of the Kremlin’s logic.
With spending on the war the Kremlin’s overriding priority, analysts are poised for potentially drastic action from the Central Bank, whose main task since the invasion has been to mitigate the domestic economic impacts of Russia’s war.
Responding to the currency's slide, the Central Bank on Monday afternoon said its board of directors would hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday — its first extraordinary session since Feb. 28, 2022 — where it is set to raise interest rates from their current level of 8.5%.www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/14/kremlin-unfazed-as-ruble-crashes-through-100-vs-dollar-a82145(The Moscow Times is a pro-Western news outlet) Wow. You really don't understand why none of that makes any sense, do you? How are you going to buy more weapons if your currency is worth less? That's just a flat out non-starter. Especially if you want to buy weapons from Iran (drones) or China because your own factories can't get chips because of sanctions, or manpower because you've sent the people who make stuff to the front line. And you can't sell weapons for foreign currency because you don't have any excess, and the world has seen your weapons match up very poorly against NATO equipment. Sure you can print money to pay your troops, but when the money isn't worth anything, and you're expecting your troops to lay down their lives, that's a morale killer. So this is also just outright nonsense. You can say The Moscow Times is a "pro-western outlet" all you want. That doesn't matter when what you print is economic illiteracy.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 13:33:57 GMT -5
You’re looking at the wrong numbers. The sky isn’t falling. Moscow Times: Kremlin Unfazed as Ruble Crashes Through 100 vs. Dollar A weaker ruble means Russia can buy more arms, ammunition and pay higher salaries for soldiers, making devaluation an attractive short-term solution to the Kremlin’s budget woes and its top priority — funding the invasion of Ukraine. Battling inflation and dealing with the other domestic costs of a weak currency, can come later.
“It’s more important to get through the next few months, or until spring, and in the long run, if things turn out worse because of this, then it doesn't really matter. It matters, but what matters much more is the ability to be able to wage war and pay bills in the next 4-6 months,” Iikka Korhonen, head of the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT), said of the Kremlin’s logic.
With spending on the war the Kremlin’s overriding priority, analysts are poised for potentially drastic action from the Central Bank, whose main task since the invasion has been to mitigate the domestic economic impacts of Russia’s war.
Responding to the currency's slide, the Central Bank on Monday afternoon said its board of directors would hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday — its first extraordinary session since Feb. 28, 2022 — where it is set to raise interest rates from their current level of 8.5%.www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/14/kremlin-unfazed-as-ruble-crashes-through-100-vs-dollar-a82145(The Moscow Times is a pro-Western news outlet) Wow. You really don't understand why none of that makes any sense, do you? How are you going to buy more weapons if your currency is worth less? That's just a flat out non-starter. Especially if you want to buy weapons from Iran (drones) or China because your own factories can't get chips because of sanctions, or manpower because you've sent the people who make stuff to the front line. And you can't sell weapons for foreign currency because you don't have any excess, and the world has seen your weapons match up very poorly against NATO equipment. Sure you can print money to pay your troops, but when the money isn't worth anything, and you're expecting your troops to lay down their lives, that's a morale killer. So this is also just outright nonsense. You can say The Moscow Times is a "pro-western outlet" all you want. That doesn't matter when what you print is economic illiteracy. Even the Pentagon admits that Russia’s military industrial complex has recovered from the 2022 sanctions. The general consensus is that the sanctions failed to do what was intended. It’s not even debatable anymore. Some are just in denial. I cited the Moscow Times because, while they are anti-Putin and agree with you that the weaker Ruble is bad, even they acknowledge that it benefits Russia in the near-term to have a weak currency. Countries intentionally devalue their currency at times depending on what they’re trying to achieve (inflation or deflation/more cash in the economy or less). It’s why I’m saying it’s not necessarily a bad thing for their currency value to go down. There are some circumstances where having a weaker currency is beneficial to your economy. “The Duran” is a great source for analysis of geopolitical issues. In the video below they cover both the Grain deal and the currency value issue:
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Post by Ranger John on Aug 14, 2023 13:45:30 GMT -5
Wow. You really don't understand why none of that makes any sense, do you? How are you going to buy more weapons if your currency is worth less? That's just a flat out non-starter. Especially if you want to buy weapons from Iran (drones) or China because your own factories can't get chips because of sanctions, or manpower because you've sent the people who make stuff to the front line. And you can't sell weapons for foreign currency because you don't have any excess, and the world has seen your weapons match up very poorly against NATO equipment. Sure you can print money to pay your troops, but when the money isn't worth anything, and you're expecting your troops to lay down their lives, that's a morale killer. So this is also just outright nonsense. You can say The Moscow Times is a "pro-western outlet" all you want. That doesn't matter when what you print is economic illiteracy. Even the Pentagon admits that Russia’s military industrial complex has recovered from the 2022 sanctions. The general consensus is that the sanctions failed to do what was intended. It’s not even debatable anymore. Some are just in denial. I cited the Moscow Times because, while they are anti-Putin and agree with you that the weaker Ruble is bad, even they acknowledge that it benefits Russia in the near-term to have a weak currency. Countries intentionally devalue their currency at times depending on what they’re trying to achieve (inflation or deflation/more cash in the economy or less). It’s why I’m saying it’s not necessarily a bad thing for their currency value to go down. There are some circumstances where having a weaker currency is beneficial to your economy. “The Duran” is a great source for analysis of geopolitical issues. In the video below they cover both the Grain deal and the currency value issue: Do you understand there's a difference between a "weak" currency, which allows your products to be more competitive in the world market; and a crashing currency which makes it very, very difficult for you to purchase anything from the world market? Again, a 10% decline has some economic advantages; a 40% decline is an economic crisis.
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Post by Rael on Aug 14, 2023 14:10:43 GMT -5
Is that anything like the "scientific consensus"? The actual numbers do not support your assertions. You’re looking at the wrong numbers. The sky isn’t falling. Moscow Times: Kremlin Unfazed as Ruble Crashes Through 100 vs. Dollar A weaker ruble means Russia can buy more arms, ammunition and pay higher salaries for soldiers, making devaluation an attractive short-term solution to the Kremlin’s budget woes and its top priority — funding the invasion of Ukraine. Battling inflation and dealing with the other domestic costs of a weak currency, can come later.
“It’s more important to get through the next few months, or until spring, and in the long run, if things turn out worse because of this, then it doesn't really matter. It matters, but what matters much more is the ability to be able to wage war and pay bills in the next 4-6 months,” Iikka Korhonen, head of the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT), said of the Kremlin’s logic.
With spending on the war the Kremlin’s overriding priority, analysts are poised for potentially drastic action from the Central Bank, whose main task since the invasion has been to mitigate the domestic economic impacts of Russia’s war.
Responding to the currency's slide, the Central Bank on Monday afternoon said its board of directors would hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday — its first extraordinary session since Feb. 28, 2022 — where it is set to raise interest rates from their current level of 8.5%.www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/14/kremlin-unfazed-as-ruble-crashes-through-100-vs-dollar-a82145(The Moscow Times is a pro-Western news outlet) There certainly isn't consensus around what you are saying. finance.yahoo.com/news/ruble-crashes-100-per-dollar-061022584.html?fr=sycsrp_catchallwww.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/business/russia-economy-ruble-inflation.html
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 18:50:03 GMT -5
Even the Pentagon admits that Russia’s military industrial complex has recovered from the 2022 sanctions. The general consensus is that the sanctions failed to do what was intended. It’s not even debatable anymore. Some are just in denial. I cited the Moscow Times because, while they are anti-Putin and agree with you that the weaker Ruble is bad, even they acknowledge that it benefits Russia in the near-term to have a weak currency. Countries intentionally devalue their currency at times depending on what they’re trying to achieve (inflation or deflation/more cash in the economy or less). It’s why I’m saying it’s not necessarily a bad thing for their currency value to go down. There are some circumstances where having a weaker currency is beneficial to your economy. “The Duran” is a great source for analysis of geopolitical issues. In the video below they cover both the Grain deal and the currency value issue: Do you understand there's a difference between a "weak" currency, which allows your products to be more competitive in the world market; and a crashing currency which makes it very, very difficult for you to purchase anything from the world market? Again, a 10% decline has some economic advantages; a 40% decline is an economic crisis. If they’re intentionally devaluing their own currency (and no country admits to doing that but many do it) it’s for a reason. Probably the reasons that have already been explained are why they are devaluing their currency now.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 19:01:55 GMT -5
You’re looking at the wrong numbers. The sky isn’t falling. Moscow Times: Kremlin Unfazed as Ruble Crashes Through 100 vs. Dollar A weaker ruble means Russia can buy more arms, ammunition and pay higher salaries for soldiers, making devaluation an attractive short-term solution to the Kremlin’s budget woes and its top priority — funding the invasion of Ukraine. Battling inflation and dealing with the other domestic costs of a weak currency, can come later.
“It’s more important to get through the next few months, or until spring, and in the long run, if things turn out worse because of this, then it doesn't really matter. It matters, but what matters much more is the ability to be able to wage war and pay bills in the next 4-6 months,” Iikka Korhonen, head of the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT), said of the Kremlin’s logic.
With spending on the war the Kremlin’s overriding priority, analysts are poised for potentially drastic action from the Central Bank, whose main task since the invasion has been to mitigate the domestic economic impacts of Russia’s war.
Responding to the currency's slide, the Central Bank on Monday afternoon said its board of directors would hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday — its first extraordinary session since Feb. 28, 2022 — where it is set to raise interest rates from their current level of 8.5%.www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/08/14/kremlin-unfazed-as-ruble-crashes-through-100-vs-dollar-a82145(The Moscow Times is a pro-Western news outlet) There certainly isn't consensus around what you are saying. finance.yahoo.com/news/ruble-crashes-100-per-dollar-061022584.html?fr=sycsrp_catchallwww.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/business/russia-economy-ruble-inflation.html Come on Rael, you’re better than this. I’m sure you read economic news just as I do and understand that currency devaluation is sometimes intentional. It’s a well known fact that some countries intentionally devalue their own currency in order to make their exports more competitive abroad. The US has long criticized China for doing that. Do you still believe the sanctions are working? Russia’s GDP growth in the second quarter was well over 4%. They’re projected to get back to their pre-invasion GDP growth by next year. At what point do you accept that they aren’t working? Sanctions never work but people smarter than us “gaslighted” folks into thinking we could crush Russia’s economy. I too believed it was possible until the facts proved how difficult it is to achieve. And if we can’t isolate Russia, which we don’t do much trade with, economically, we certainly won’t be able to isolate China which we do tons of trade with…
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Post by Ranger John on Aug 14, 2023 19:19:40 GMT -5
Do you understand there's a difference between a "weak" currency, which allows your products to be more competitive in the world market; and a crashing currency which makes it very, very difficult for you to purchase anything from the world market? Again, a 10% decline has some economic advantages; a 40% decline is an economic crisis. If they’re intentionally devaluing their own currency (and no country admits to doing that but many do it) it’s for a reason. Probably the reasons that have already been explained are why they are devaluing their currency now. Just stop. NO COUNTRY intentionally devalues their currency by 40%. This is a disaster, not a strategy. If it was off by 5 or 10%, your theory would be worth discussion. Because, yes, there are competitive advantages in the international markets for being a little less expensive than everyone else. That's not what this is. 40% is a crisis.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 19:41:49 GMT -5
If they’re intentionally devaluing their own currency (and no country admits to doing that but many do it) it’s for a reason. Probably the reasons that have already been explained are why they are devaluing their currency now. Just stop. NO COUNTRY intentionally devalues their currency by 40%. This is a disaster, not a strategy. If it was off by 5 or 10%, your theory would be worth discussion. Because, yes, there are competitive advantages in the international markets for being a little less expensive than everyone else. That's not what this is. 40% is a crisis. Let’s return to this thread a month or so from now after we have a clearer picture of how things are playing out. I think the interest rate hike will stabilize things for them. It’s too soon to draw any conclusions given that Russia blew away expectations for GDP growth between April and June. 4.9% GDP growth is a pretty strong indicator of their economic performance.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 19:46:00 GMT -5
And yes, countries DO intentionally devalue their own currency. Investopedia:
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 14, 2023 19:48:08 GMT -5
The Russian government said their economy is growing so it must be true.
Some people are just fools
Russia is dealing with high inflation, reduced oil revenue, and a further loss of purchasing power because of the ruble's dramatic decline. Their economy is in serious trouble.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 20:09:46 GMT -5
The Russian government said their economy is growing so it must be true. Some people are just fools Russia is dealing with high inflation, reduced oil revenue, and a further loss of purchasing power because of the ruble's dramatic decline. Their economy is in serious trouble. Ukraine's economy is in serious trouble. Russia's economy has weathered the sanctions per any objective analysis of their economy. I know its painful to admit but either Biden overestimated the power of Western sanctions on Russia or he exaggerated when he promised to " cripple" their economy. I lean towards the former because I too thought the sanctions would do more damage to Russia's economy than they have done so far. Sanctions make it difficult for countries to access some things but they rarely cut them off completely. There are always third-party vendors for sanctioned goods.
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Post by Rael on Aug 14, 2023 20:10:53 GMT -5
Come on Rael, you’re better than this. I’m sure you read economic news just as I do and understand that currency devaluation is sometimes intentional. It’s a well known fact that some countries intentionally devalue their own currency in order to make their exports more competitive abroad. The US has long criticized China for doing that. Do you still believe the sanctions are working? Russia’s GDP growth in the second quarter was well over 4%. They’re projected to get back to their pre-invasion GDP growth by next year. At what point do you accept that they aren’t working? Sanctions never work but people smarter than us “gaslighted” folks into thinking we could crush Russia’s economy. I too believed it was possible until the facts proved how difficult it is to achieve. And if we can’t isolate Russia, which we don’t do much trade with, economically, we certainly won’t be able to isolate China which we do tons of trade with… The economist just had an article today regarding how bad the massive devaluation has gotten. Just because it can be used as a tool doesn't mean it is never detrimental. But I guess you know more than they do. Are the sanctions "crushing" them? No, but the pressure has been steady and is worsening.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 20:20:25 GMT -5
Come on Rael, you’re better than this. I’m sure you read economic news just as I do and understand that currency devaluation is sometimes intentional. It’s a well known fact that some countries intentionally devalue their own currency in order to make their exports more competitive abroad. The US has long criticized China for doing that. Do you still believe the sanctions are working? Russia’s GDP growth in the second quarter was well over 4%. They’re projected to get back to their pre-invasion GDP growth by next year. At what point do you accept that they aren’t working? Sanctions never work but people smarter than us “gaslighted” folks into thinking we could crush Russia’s economy. I too believed it was possible until the facts proved how difficult it is to achieve. And if we can’t isolate Russia, which we don’t do much trade with, economically, we certainly won’t be able to isolate China which we do tons of trade with… The economist just had an article today regarding how bad the massive devaluation has gotten. Just because it can be used as a tool doesn't mean it is never detrimental. But I guess you know more than they do. Are the sanctions "crushing" them? No, but the pressure has been steady and is worsening. I've never claimed to be an "expert". I've cited articles that quote experts who back my analysis but you and others have ignored the articles and videos that I've shared. That's fine but don't act as if I'm pulling stuff from my rear-end when I cite sources. I know I'm not an expert. Hence why I usually reference different sources. Almost everything I've posted on this topic comes from stuff I've read about Russia's economy or the global economy...
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 14, 2023 20:26:24 GMT -5
Let’s return to this thread a month or so from now after we have a clearer picture of how things are playing out. I think the interest rate hike will stabilize things for them. It’s too soon to draw any conclusions given that Russia blew away expectations for GDP growth between April and June. 4.9% GDP growth is a pretty strong indicator of their economic performance. So, wait... Are they doing this intentionally or not? If they are doing this intentionally they wouldn't be having emergency meetings to try and 'stabilize things'
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Post by soulflower on Aug 14, 2023 20:34:13 GMT -5
Let’s return to this thread a month or so from now after we have a clearer picture of how things are playing out. I think the interest rate hike will stabilize things for them. It’s too soon to draw any conclusions given that Russia blew away expectations for GDP growth between April and June. 4.9% GDP growth is a pretty strong indicator of their economic performance. So, wait... Are they doing this intentionally or not? If they are doing this intentionally they wouldn't be having emergency meetings to try and 'stabilize things' They’re meeting to raise interest rates, which should stabilize their currency. Read the Moscow Times article that I linked. (The Moscow Times is based in Europe and is anti-Putin)
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Post by Rael on Aug 14, 2023 20:51:09 GMT -5
The economist just had an article today regarding how bad the massive devaluation has gotten. Just because it can be used as a tool doesn't mean it is never detrimental. But I guess you know more than they do. Are the sanctions "crushing" them? No, but the pressure has been steady and is worsening. I've never claimed to be an "expert". I've cited articles that quote experts who back my analysis but you and others have ignored the articles and videos that I've shared. That's fine but don't act as if I'm pulling stuff from my rear-end when I cite sources. I know I'm not an expert. Hence why I usually reference different sources. Almost everything I've posted on this topic comes from stuff I've read about Russia's economy or the global economy... Don't kid yourself. I'm doing the same thing and getting a similar reaction from you. You posted articles as did I. Why do you assume you are backing the "correct" experts?
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