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Post by zenwalk on Aug 16, 2023 1:22:49 GMT -5
I've never claimed to be an "expert". I've cited articles that quote experts who back my analysis but you and others have ignored the articles and videos that I've shared. That's fine but don't act as if I'm pulling stuff from my rear-end when I cite sources. I know I'm not an expert. Hence why I usually reference different sources. Almost everything I've posted on this topic comes from stuff I've read about Russia's economy or the global economy... Don't kid yourself. I'm doing the same thing and getting a similar reaction from you. You posted articles as did I. Why do you assume you are backing the "correct" experts? You'd think a dollar being able to buy 100 rubles is edging into Weimar territory? That's hardly a good thing for Russia is it? That value is just an affirmation that the economy there is a car wreck?
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Post by soulflower on Aug 16, 2023 7:27:54 GMT -5
No one in Russia seems to be panicking from what I can tell just as Americans aren’t panicking about our Fed raising our interest rates. Do you ever actually listen to yourself? The Central Bank raised interest rates by 3.5 percent in a morning. It is now at 12 percent. The Fed has periodically raised rates by a half or a quarter of a point. The Russians are basically trying shock therapy to arrest the ruble's free fall. And weirdly, the Russians aren’t panicking. What gives? At this point, it looks like a manageable problem, not a crisis. It could become a crisis at some point in the future if they run out of tools for stabilizing their currency. ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-ruble-tumbled-does-mean-131359968.htmlMeanwhile in the EU, Germany and The Netherlands are now officially in a recession. Why is no one talking about that?
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Post by Ranger John on Aug 16, 2023 9:15:30 GMT -5
Do you ever actually listen to yourself? The Central Bank raised interest rates by 3.5 percent in a morning. It is now at 12 percent. The Fed has periodically raised rates by a half or a quarter of a point. The Russians are basically trying shock therapy to arrest the ruble's free fall. And weirdly, the Russians aren’t panicking. What gives? At this point, it looks like a manageable problem, not a crisis. It could become a crisis at some point in the future if they run out of tools for stabilizing their currency. ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-ruble-tumbled-does-mean-131359968.htmlMeanwhile in the EU, Germany and The Netherlands are now officially in a recession. Why is no one talking about that? Sorry, but raising interest rates by 350 basis points in a single meeting is definitely panicking. If you want to talk about other economies in recession, start another thread, this one is about the collapse of the Russian economy.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 16, 2023 9:53:34 GMT -5
And weirdly, the Russians aren’t panicking. What gives? At this point, it looks like a manageable problem, not a crisis. It could become a crisis at some point in the future if they run out of tools for stabilizing their currency. ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-ruble-tumbled-does-mean-131359968.htmlMeanwhile in the EU, Germany and The Netherlands are now officially in a recession. Why is no one talking about that? Sorry, but raising interest rates by 350 basis points in a single meeting is definitely panicking. If you want to talk about other economies in recession, start another thread, this one is about the collapse of the Russian economy. Russia’s economy is not collapsing or even in recession. It’s growing. You can ignore other economic indicators from Russia if you want. That doesn’t mean I have to…
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Post by Ranger John on Aug 16, 2023 9:59:06 GMT -5
Sorry, but raising interest rates by 350 basis points in a single meeting is definitely panicking. If you want to talk about other economies in recession, start another thread, this one is about the collapse of the Russian economy. Russia’s economy is not collapsing or even in recession. It’s growing. You can ignore other economic indicators from Russia if you want. That doesn’t mean I have to… You wouldn't be making this nonsense claim if the Fed hiked the US interest rate by 3.5% in a single meeting after the dollar lost 50 cents against the Euro and Pound.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 16, 2023 10:00:04 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 16, 2023 10:18:53 GMT -5
Russia’s economy is not collapsing or even in recession. It’s growing. You can ignore other economic indicators from Russia if you want. That doesn’t mean I have to… You wouldn't be making this nonsense claim if the Fed hiked the US interest rate by 3.5% in a single meeting after the dollar lost 50 cents against the Euro and Pound. We’d never hear the end of it
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Post by soulflower on Aug 16, 2023 11:40:00 GMT -5
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Post by Ranger John on Aug 16, 2023 12:37:58 GMT -5
No one's taking anyone's word on this except you. No one has to. The Russian Central Bank bumped interest rates to 12%, up 350 basis points, in a single meeting because the Ruble is crashing. I don't care what you or anyone else SAYS. I'm watching what they're DOING. And they're panicking.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 16, 2023 13:02:46 GMT -5
No one's taking anyone's word on this except you. No one has to. The Russian Central Bank bumped interest rates to 12%, up 350 basis points, in a single meeting because the Ruble is crashing. I don't care what you or anyone else SAYS. I'm watching what they're DOING. And they're panicking. Russia’s central bank is taking the problem seriously enough to raise interest rates. We agree on that. However, there’s no evidence that Russians view this as a “crisis” or that Russia’s overall economy is collapsing. And I’ve shared articles from several Western sources already confirm that there’s no sense of “panic” in Russia currently. Beyond that, we’ll just have to revisit this issue in a few weeks after the smoke clears. For now, I trust Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance over your opinion. No offense…
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Post by Ranger John on Aug 16, 2023 15:23:56 GMT -5
No one's taking anyone's word on this except you. No one has to. The Russian Central Bank bumped interest rates to 12%, up 350 basis points, in a single meeting because the Ruble is crashing. I don't care what you or anyone else SAYS. I'm watching what they're DOING. And they're panicking. Russia’s central bank is taking the problem seriously enough to raise interest rates. We agree on that. However, there’s no evidence that Russians view this as a “crisis” or that Russia’s overall economy is collapsing. And I’ve shared articles from several Western sources already confirm that there’s no sense of “panic” in Russia currently. Beyond that, we’ll just have to revisit this issue in a few weeks after the smoke clears. For now, I trust Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance over your opinion. No offense… The central bank meeting has been called an "emergency" by more than one source. Don't listen to what they say. Watch what they do.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 16, 2023 15:31:11 GMT -5
The Central Bank is considering going back to the kind of capital controls that it instituted last year in an attempt to shore up the ruble but yeah, everything is just hunky dory in Russia.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 16, 2023 15:57:23 GMT -5
Russia’s central bank is taking the problem seriously enough to raise interest rates. We agree on that. However, there’s no evidence that Russians view this as a “crisis” or that Russia’s overall economy is collapsing. And I’ve shared articles from several Western sources already confirm that there’s no sense of “panic” in Russia currently. Beyond that, we’ll just have to revisit this issue in a few weeks after the smoke clears. For now, I trust Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance over your opinion. No offense… The central bank meeting has been called an "emergency" by more than one source. Don't listen to what they say. Watch what they do. That’s exactly what I’m doing. My observation is that the Russian people aren’t panicking right now. The mood in Russia right now isn’t like March 2022. There’s no run on the banks or people fleeing Russia at the moment. Maybe they should panic? I don’t know but as soon as we see real signs that this is more than a currency/trade problem, I’ll be sure to let you know.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 30, 2023 2:13:03 GMT -5
I'm starting yet another Russia/Ukraine thread for this simple reason... There are battlefield developments There is Russia's ethnic cleansing campaign and, while it arguably affects Russia's ability to fight on the battlefield, there is Putin's tanking economy and the US led sanction campaign's impact on said tanking economy. Have fun! www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/30/russia-ruble-drop-prices-rising/
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 31, 2023 13:12:48 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Aug 31, 2023 13:24:32 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Sept 2, 2023 7:26:16 GMT -5
Below is a fairly objective video about life in Russia under the current sanctions policies. He explains where the sanctions are hurting Russia’s economy and explains how Russians have adapted to the sanctions
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Post by Ranger John on Sept 4, 2023 14:19:28 GMT -5
www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1MSo after the rate hike, the Ruble made it back up to around 93 Rubles to the Dollar for a few weeks. Then, after mid-August, it started inching back down again. FOr the last week or so, it's been around 96 to the dollar. It doesn't look like that panicked rate hike is going to solve the problem.
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Post by WKDWZD on Sept 4, 2023 17:07:18 GMT -5
Wow! 93 rubles to the dollar eh!? Could be a good time to go on that Russian vacation you always fancied. It'll be cheap as chips, as they say.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 6, 2023 23:23:42 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 6, 2023 23:25:50 GMT -5
Wow! 93 rubles to the dollar eh!? Could be a good time to go on that Russian vacation you always fancied. It'll be cheap as chips, as they say. Now 98 rubles to the dollar
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Post by WKDWZD on Sept 7, 2023 4:46:48 GMT -5
Wow! 93 rubles to the dollar eh!? Could be a good time to go on that Russian vacation you always fancied. It'll be cheap as chips, as they say. Now 98 rubles to the dollar Grab your Russian phrasebook.
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Post by Ranger John on Oct 3, 2023 10:51:59 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 11:30:47 GMT -5
Still very few signs that it’s impacting ordinary Russians. They didn’t import much from the US before the invasion and they import far less from us today. Long term, this could turn into a major problem for Russia’s economy but in the near term, it seems manageable.
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Post by Ranger John on Oct 3, 2023 11:35:22 GMT -5
Still very few signs that it’s impacting ordinary Russians. They didn’t import much from the US before the invasion and they import far less from us today. Long term, this could turn into a major problem for Russia’s economy but in the near term, it seems manageable. Wow... denial ain't just a river in Egypt.
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Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 11:46:20 GMT -5
Still very few signs that it’s impacting ordinary Russians. They didn’t import much from the US before the invasion and they import far less from us today. Long term, this could turn into a major problem for Russia’s economy but in the near term, it seems manageable. Wow... denial ain't just a river in Egypt. What am I denying? I certainly haven’t denied that Russia’s currency is worthless globally. It means something but clearly not what you think it means for ordinary Russians.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Oct 3, 2023 11:49:38 GMT -5
Still very few signs that it’s impacting ordinary Russians. They didn’t import much from the US before the invasion and they import far less from us today. Long term, this could turn into a major problem for Russia’s economy but in the near term, it seems manageable. What does Russia's imports from the US have to do with this? Nothing.
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Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 12:11:27 GMT -5
Still very few signs that it’s impacting ordinary Russians. They didn’t import much from the US before the invasion and they import far less from us today. Long term, this could turn into a major problem for Russia’s economy but in the near term, it seems manageable. What does Russia's imports from the US have to do with this? Nothing. So you’re telling me that you don’t understand how currency exchange rates work in a practical sense? Unless Russians travel abroad or import goods, the average Russian probably won’t notice or care about the Ruble’s exchange value. However, the interest rate hikes to stabilize their currency does affect ordinary Russians (in terms of inflation) and that’s what I meant when I said, it could become a major problem within Russia in the long-run. Not sure why this is so difficult for some to understand.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Oct 3, 2023 12:19:49 GMT -5
What does Russia's imports from the US have to do with this? Nothing. So you’re telling me that you don’t understand how currency exchange rates work in a practical sense? Unless Russians travel abroad or import goods, the average Russian probably won’t notice or care about the Ruble’s exchange value. However, the interest rate hikes to stabilize their currency does affect ordinary Russians (in terms of inflation) and that’s what I meant when I said, it could become a major problem within Russia in the long-run. Not sure why this is so difficult for some to understand. Moving the goal posts again. First you try to say that it doesn't matter because Russia doesn't import much from the US (that's irrelevant) Now you're suggesting that it doesn't impact 'Russians' unless they import goods (not really true) Maybe you're the one who is having difficulty understanding how currency works Next?
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Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 12:41:05 GMT -5
So you’re telling me that you don’t understand how currency exchange rates work in a practical sense? Unless Russians travel abroad or import goods, the average Russian probably won’t notice or care about the Ruble’s exchange value. However, the interest rate hikes to stabilize their currency does affect ordinary Russians (in terms of inflation) and that’s what I meant when I said, it could become a major problem within Russia in the long-run. Not sure why this is so difficult for some to understand. Moving the goal posts again. First you try to say that it doesn't matter because Russia doesn't import much from the US (that's irrelevant) Now you're suggesting that it doesn't impact 'Russians' unless they import goods (not really true) Maybe you're the one who is having difficulty understanding how currency works Next? At this point, I’m not sure what you disagree with. Feel free to reference data or facts that counter the points I made. We agree that Russia’s currency is pretty worthless currently. I guess we disagree on the extent to which it affects people who live in Russia?
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