|
Post by Rael on Oct 3, 2023 12:52:02 GMT -5
Moving the goal posts again. First you try to say that it doesn't matter because Russia doesn't import much from the US (that's irrelevant) Now you're suggesting that it doesn't impact 'Russians' unless they import goods (not really true) Maybe you're the one who is having difficulty understanding how currency works Next? At this point, I’m not sure what you disagree with. Feel free to reference data or facts that counter the points I made. We agree that Russia’s currency is pretty worthless currently. I guess we disagree on the extent to which it affects people who live in Russia? Not an economics major here but doesn't that suggest any imported goods will be much higher in price fueling a spike in inflation? The fact that it is not an immediate effect doesn't mean it won't be a substantial effect.
|
|
|
Post by JoyinMudville on Oct 3, 2023 13:01:02 GMT -5
At this point, I’m not sure what you disagree with. Feel free to reference data or facts that counter the points I made. We agree that Russia’s currency is pretty worthless currently. I guess we disagree on the extent to which it affects people who live in Russia? Not an economics major here but doesn't that suggest any imported goods will be much higher in price fueling a spike in inflation? The fact that it is not an immediate effect doesn't mean it won't be a substantial effect. If the dollar is worth less, that reduces your purchasing power. If your dollar is worth less and you are experiencing inflation because of other factors, you lack even more purchasing power. The same is true of the ruble. It is simply denial to assert that it doesn't have much impact on people living in Russia.
|
|
|
Post by Rael on Oct 3, 2023 13:04:26 GMT -5
Not an economics major here but doesn't that suggest any imported goods will be much higher in price fueling a spike in inflation? The fact that it is not an immediate effect doesn't mean it won't be a substantial effect. If the dollar is worth less, that reduces your purchasing power. If your dollar is worth less and you are experiencing inflation because of other factors, you lack even more purchasing power. The same is true of the ruble. It is simply denial to assert that it doesn't have much impact on people living in Russia. I suppose it depends on how much importing they do. If they were a totally closed economy it would matter little. I would suggest it affects them less than it would us, but that does not mean the effect is not substantial.
|
|
|
Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 13:22:37 GMT -5
At this point, I’m not sure what you disagree with. Feel free to reference data or facts that counter the points I made. We agree that Russia’s currency is pretty worthless currently. I guess we disagree on the extent to which it affects people who live in Russia? Not an economics major here but doesn't that suggest any imported goods will be much higher in price fueling a spike in inflation? The fact that it is not an immediate effect doesn't mean it won't be a substantial effect. Right and I’ve been clear in my prior posts that in the long-term it could become a bigger problem for them. But currently and in the near-term there aren’t any signs that Russian consumers are directly affected by this problem. At worst, it’s indirectly hurting them due to inflation.
|
|
|
Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 13:27:00 GMT -5
If the dollar is worth less, that reduces your purchasing power. If your dollar is worth less and you are experiencing inflation because of other factors, you lack even more purchasing power. The same is true of the ruble. It is simply denial to assert that it doesn't have much impact on people living in Russia. I suppose it depends on how much importing they do. If they were a totally closed economy it would matter little. I would suggest it affects them less than it would us, but that does not mean the effect is not substantial. Bingo! Russia isn’t a closed economy but they don’t import much from the EU or US anymore due to the war. And Russian companies can trade with China and India in the Chinese and Indian currencies. It’s complicated and I don’t want anyone to think I don’t view this as a problem or setback for Russia. I do think it’s a setback for them. I just don’t see any signs that indicate that this problem is negatively affecting Russia’s entire economy or severely affecting Russian consumers.
|
|
|
Post by JoyinMudville on Oct 3, 2023 13:54:17 GMT -5
I suppose it depends on how much importing they do. If they were a totally closed economy it would matter little. I would suggest it affects them less than it would us, but that does not mean the effect is not substantial. Bingo! Russia isn’t a closed economy but they don’t import much from the EU or US anymore due to the war. And Russian companies can trade with China and India in the Chinese and Indian currencies. You don’t understand how this works. those currencies are all pegged to the dollar so Russia has less purchasing power with China and India because its currency is not worth as much as it was in January 2022
|
|
|
Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 14:12:41 GMT -5
Bingo! Russia isn’t a closed economy but they don’t import much from the EU or US anymore due to the war. And Russian companies can trade with China and India in the Chinese and Indian currencies. You don’t understand how this works. those currencies are all pegged to the dollar so Russia has less purchasing power with China and India because its currency is not worth as much as it was in January 2022 Clearly you and RJ don’t understand how geopolitical economics works. The weak Ruble makes Russian exports cheaper. Imports are more expensive for Russian citizens due to the weak currency but ordinary Russians don’t buy many imported goods other than cars. They don’t need to import much oil or food which Russia has an abundance of domestically. September 2023 - Russian oil sold to India at 30% above Western price cap, traders say Shipments of Russian oil to India jumped 15% in September from a seven-month low in August, boosted by plentiful supply and price discounts, according to Kpler SAS. finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-oil-exports-india-bounced-065243182.htmlSeptember 2023 - Trade between Russia and China is booming so much that shipping containers are ‘piling up’ In the first eight months of 2023, bilateral trade rose by 32% compared to the same period a year before, with total trade volume reaching $155 billion, according to Chinese customs data released earlier this month.
That included a surge of exports from China to Russia, which jumped 63.2% from a year ago to reach $71.8 billion. Imports into China rose at a more modest 13.3% to $83.3 billion.
Russia has said it expects trade with China to reach a record $200 billion this year — a year ahead of the schedule that President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping had set in 2019.amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/09/29/business/russia-china-trade-shipping-containers-intl-hnk/index.htmlHopefully the above two recent articles get my point across. The low currency exchange rate for Russia isn’t a good thing but it doesn’t indicate that their economy is “crippled” or near collapse. China and India so far appear to have increased trade with Russia which has offset the loss of trade with the US and EU.
|
|
|
Post by JoyinMudville on Oct 3, 2023 14:31:02 GMT -5
You don’t understand how this works. those currencies are all pegged to the dollar so Russia has less purchasing power with China and India because its currency is not worth as much as it was in January 2022 Clearly you and RJ don’t understand how geopolitical economics works. The weak Ruble makes Russian exports cheaper. Imports are more expensive for Russian citizens due to the weak currency but ordinary Russians don’t buy many imported goods other than cars. They don’t need to import much oil or food which Russia has an abundance of domestically. September 2023 - Russian oil sold to India at 30% above Western price cap, traders say Shipments of Russian oil to India jumped 15% in September from a seven-month low in August, boosted by plentiful supply and price discounts, according to Kpler SAS. finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-oil-exports-india-bounced-065243182.htmlSeptember 2023 - Trade between Russia and China is booming so much that shipping containers are ‘piling up’ In the first eight months of 2023, bilateral trade rose by 32% compared to the same period a year before, with total trade volume reaching $155 billion, according to Chinese customs data released earlier this month.
That included a surge of exports from China to Russia, which jumped 63.2% from a year ago to reach $71.8 billion. Imports into China rose at a more modest 13.3% to $83.3 billion.
Russia has said it expects trade with China to reach a record $200 billion this year — a year ahead of the schedule that President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping had set in 2019.amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/09/29/business/russia-china-trade-shipping-containers-intl-hnk/index.htmlHopefully the above two recent articles get my point across. The low currency exchange rate for Russia isn’t a good thing but it doesn’t indicate that their economy is “crippled” or near collapse. China and India so far appear to have increased trade with Russia which has offset the loss of trade with the US and EU. Moving the goal posts again. Ok, you want to talk about oil exports now. Got it. For the 499th time. It is not the volume of oil that Russia is selling it is the revenue it is making from those exports. Oil revenue for Russia is down significantly. Or, to put it another way, Russia now has to sell more oil and still isn’t making the same amount of revenue. if it used to cost me $60 dollars to make 25 widgets which I then sold for $100, I am making a $40 profit If sanctions, inflation, and a weaker dollar means that it now costs me $80 to make 25 widgets and I can only sell them for $75 dollars, I am losing money This is not difficult
|
|
|
Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 15:28:26 GMT -5
Clearly you and RJ don’t understand how geopolitical economics works. The weak Ruble makes Russian exports cheaper. Imports are more expensive for Russian citizens due to the weak currency but ordinary Russians don’t buy many imported goods other than cars. They don’t need to import much oil or food which Russia has an abundance of domestically. September 2023 - Russian oil sold to India at 30% above Western price cap, traders say Shipments of Russian oil to India jumped 15% in September from a seven-month low in August, boosted by plentiful supply and price discounts, according to Kpler SAS. finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-oil-exports-india-bounced-065243182.htmlSeptember 2023 - Trade between Russia and China is booming so much that shipping containers are ‘piling up’ In the first eight months of 2023, bilateral trade rose by 32% compared to the same period a year before, with total trade volume reaching $155 billion, according to Chinese customs data released earlier this month.
That included a surge of exports from China to Russia, which jumped 63.2% from a year ago to reach $71.8 billion. Imports into China rose at a more modest 13.3% to $83.3 billion.
Russia has said it expects trade with China to reach a record $200 billion this year — a year ahead of the schedule that President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping had set in 2019.amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/09/29/business/russia-china-trade-shipping-containers-intl-hnk/index.htmlHopefully the above two recent articles get my point across. The low currency exchange rate for Russia isn’t a good thing but it doesn’t indicate that their economy is “crippled” or near collapse. China and India so far appear to have increased trade with Russia which has offset the loss of trade with the US and EU. Moving the goal posts again. Ok, you want to talk about oil exports now. Got it. For the 499th time. It is not the volume of oil that Russia is selling it is the revenue it is making from those exports. Oil revenue for Russia is down significantly. Or, to put it another way, Russia now has to sell more oil and still isn’t making the same amount of revenue. if it used to cost me $60 dollars to make 25 widgets which I then sold for $100, I am making a $40 profit If sanctions, inflation, and a weaker dollar means that it now costs me $80 to make 25 widgets and I can only sell them for $75 dollars, I am losing money This is not difficult My point was that the weak Ruble hasn’t stopped or slowed Russian imports and exports. Here’s another economic indicator: October 2023: Russian factory activity grows at fastest pace in over six years in Sept -PMI Activity in Russian manufacturing grew at its fastest pace in more than six years in September, a survey showed on Monday, while employment in the sector rose at its quickest rate in over two decades.
The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing rose to 54.5 from 52.7 in August, moving further above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. It was the highest reading since January 2017.www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-factory-activity-grows-fastest-pace-over-six-years-sept-pmi-2023-10-02/So when I say, “there are few signs that the currency exchange rate is affecting ordinary Russians”, that’s what I mean. Right now, Russia’s economy is stable. Not collapsing or crippled. Gotta keep things in perspective…
|
|
|
Post by Ranger John on Oct 3, 2023 15:56:30 GMT -5
Wow... denial ain't just a river in Egypt. What am I denying? I certainly haven’t denied that Russia’s currency is worthless globally. It means something but clearly not what you think it means for ordinary Russians. This is simple: Putin controls all the economic information coming out of Russia. This prevents the world from knowing what things are like for ordinary Russians. Which makes what you believe about ordinary Russians somewhere between meaningless and wrong. It's also dealing with a fuel shortage right now as almost half of its refineries are closed. That also can't be good for "ordinary Russians" but we'll never know because Putin won't tell anyone. One of the things that Russia can not control is how the rest of the world values the Ruble. It's the best metric we have for the true strength of what's left of Russia's economy.
|
|
|
Post by JoyinMudville on Oct 3, 2023 15:57:06 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Ranger John on Oct 3, 2023 16:02:07 GMT -5
You don’t understand how this works. those currencies are all pegged to the dollar so Russia has less purchasing power with China and India because its currency is not worth as much as it was in January 2022 Clearly you and RJ don’t understand how geopolitical economics works. The weak Ruble makes Russian exports cheaper. Imports are more expensive for Russian citizens due to the weak currency but ordinary Russians don’t buy many imported goods other than cars. They don’t need to import much oil or food which Russia has an abundance of domestically. September 2023 - Russian oil sold to India at 30% above Western price cap, traders say Shipments of Russian oil to India jumped 15% in September from a seven-month low in August, boosted by plentiful supply and price discounts, according to Kpler SAS. finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-oil-exports-india-bounced-065243182.htmlSeptember 2023 - Trade between Russia and China is booming so much that shipping containers are ‘piling up’ In the first eight months of 2023, bilateral trade rose by 32% compared to the same period a year before, with total trade volume reaching $155 billion, according to Chinese customs data released earlier this month.
That included a surge of exports from China to Russia, which jumped 63.2% from a year ago to reach $71.8 billion. Imports into China rose at a more modest 13.3% to $83.3 billion.
Russia has said it expects trade with China to reach a record $200 billion this year — a year ahead of the schedule that President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping had set in 2019.amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/09/29/business/russia-china-trade-shipping-containers-intl-hnk/index.htmlHopefully the above two recent articles get my point across. The low currency exchange rate for Russia isn’t a good thing but it doesn’t indicate that their economy is “crippled” or near collapse. China and India so far appear to have increased trade with Russia which has offset the loss of trade with the US and EU. I'm afraid it's you who doesn't understand how global economics work. The most direct meaning of a collapsed currency is that the foreign markets have no use for it. It means no one's buying Russian products no matter how cheap they get. This is what you weren't understanding a couple pages back when I tried to explain that a currency devalued by 10% will reduce the price and make products priced in the currency sell faster. When the currency drops by 40% it's because you've Bud Lighted yourself.
|
|
|
Post by WKDWZD on Oct 3, 2023 16:05:47 GMT -5
All you hi financier guys just crack me up.
|
|
|
Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 16:16:34 GMT -5
What am I denying? I certainly haven’t denied that Russia’s currency is worthless globally. It means something but clearly not what you think it means for ordinary Russians. This is simple: Putin controls all the economic information coming out of Russia. This prevents the world from knowing what things are like for ordinary Russians. Which makes what you believe about ordinary Russians somewhere between meaningless and wrong. It's also dealing with a fuel shortage right now as almost half of its refineries are closed. That also can't be good for "ordinary Russians" but we'll never know because Putin won't tell anyone. One of the things that Russia can not control is how the rest of the world values the Ruble. It's the best metric we have for the true strength of what's left of Russia's economy. And now we’ve reached the point where RJ just makes things up 😂 Russia’s economy is under an international microscope. If they were faking their economic stats, it wouldn’t be long before independent economists figured it out. And Russia isn’t the Soviet Union. Westerners still do visit Russia and report back on what life is like currently. I posted a video earlier in the thread about from a journalist who visited Russia recently. He described where sanctions are hurting Russia’s economy (and where they aren’t). Did you watch it?
|
|
|
Post by JoyinMudville on Oct 3, 2023 16:21:45 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 16:26:00 GMT -5
The point is, Russia is still importing tons of goods and exporting oil. It’s true that their revenues from oil are down and that could affect them long-term. But in the near-term, there are few signs that their economy is “crippled” or “collapsing”. If I’m wrong, what economic indicators am I missing?
|
|
|
Post by JoyinMudville on Oct 3, 2023 16:27:43 GMT -5
This is simple: Putin controls all the economic information coming out of Russia. This prevents the world from knowing what things are like for ordinary Russians. Which makes what you believe about ordinary Russians somewhere between meaningless and wrong. It's also dealing with a fuel shortage right now as almost half of its refineries are closed. That also can't be good for "ordinary Russians" but we'll never know because Putin won't tell anyone. One of the things that Russia can not control is how the rest of the world values the Ruble. It's the best metric we have for the true strength of what's left of Russia's economy. And now we’ve reached the point where RJ just makes things up 😂 Russia’s economy is under an international microscope. If they were faking their economic stats, it wouldn’t be long before independent economists figured it out. Only a fool would take Russian statistics about their economy at face value time.com/6270540/imf-pushing-putins-economic-propaganda/
|
|
|
Post by JoyinMudville on Oct 3, 2023 16:34:04 GMT -5
The point is, Russia is still importing tons of goods and exporting oil. It’s true that their revenues from oil are down and that could affect them long-term. But in the near-term, there are few signs that their economy is “crippled” or “collapsing”. If I’m wrong, what economic indicators am I missing? No, that isn't the point. 'tons' doesn't mean anything nor does cherry picking trade numbers with one or two countries. It is the revenue not the volume that matters and as we see with the oil and energy sectors, the revenue is way down.
|
|
|
Post by Ranger John on Oct 3, 2023 16:34:56 GMT -5
This is simple: Putin controls all the economic information coming out of Russia. This prevents the world from knowing what things are like for ordinary Russians. Which makes what you believe about ordinary Russians somewhere between meaningless and wrong. It's also dealing with a fuel shortage right now as almost half of its refineries are closed. That also can't be good for "ordinary Russians" but we'll never know because Putin won't tell anyone. One of the things that Russia can not control is how the rest of the world values the Ruble. It's the best metric we have for the true strength of what's left of Russia's economy. And now we’ve reached the point where RJ just makes things up 😂 Russia’s economy is under an international microscope. If they were faking their economic stats, it wouldn’t be long before independent economists figured it out. And Russia isn’t the Soviet Union. Westerners still do visit Russia and report back on what life is like currently. I posted a video earlier in the thread about from a journalist who visited Russia recently. He described where sanctions are hurting Russia’s economy (and where they aren’t). Did you watch it? Where's the data coming from? They've run their interest rates up to 13% while their inflation number supposedly sits somewhere in the 5% range. That doesn't make a lick of sense. I'll grant you everyone WANTS to know what's going on in the Russian economy. But Putin controls the data coming out of the country and there's no independent data source. Which means, I'm not the one just making things up - PUTIN is. Westerners visit Moscow and Saint Petersburg. It isn't that hard to make it seem like two cities are doing fine and the Russians are great at creating "Potempkin villages." Westerners do NOT visit the vast majority of the country. They USED TO when they were keeping the Russian oil fields and refineries going, but that stopped when Russia invaded Ukraine and the western oil companies decided to pull up stakes.
|
|
|
Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 16:43:29 GMT -5
And now we’ve reached the point where RJ just makes things up 😂 Russia’s economy is under an international microscope. If they were faking their economic stats, it wouldn’t be long before independent economists figured it out. Only a fool would take Russian statistics about their economy at face value Only a desperate person who is in denial would choose not to read the links that I’ve shared from mainstream news sources. The Yahoo/Bloomberg link cited a French company that monitors the oil industry. The CNN link cited a western company that monitors shipping container trends. The manufacturing/PMI stats come from the S&P. All the stuff I cited comes from Third-parties and mainstream media sources, not directly from Russia.
|
|
|
Post by Ranger John on Oct 3, 2023 16:51:36 GMT -5
Only a fool would take Russian statistics about their economy at face value Only a desperate person who is in denial would choose not to read the links that I’ve shared from mainstream news sources. The Yahoo/Bloomberg link cited a French company that monitors the oil industry. The CNN link cited a western company that monitors shipping container trends. The manufacturing/PMI stats come from the S&P. All the stuff I cited comes from Third-parties and mainstream media sources, not directly from Russia. You're REALLY struggling with this sf. First, lets start with India and China. OF COURSE Russian exports to those countries have exploded. Why? BECAUSE NO ONE ELSE WILL BUY THEIR PRODUCTS. And in order to sell to China and India, they have to offer what they're making at a steep discount. This isn't good news for Russia. Pretending it is, is the worst form of grasping at straws. Second, those supposedly independent sources you keep citing just aren't. S&P doesn't have people in Russia to collect this data.
|
|
|
Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 17:04:04 GMT -5
Only a desperate person who is in denial would choose not to read the links that I’ve shared from mainstream news sources. The Yahoo/Bloomberg link cited a French company that monitors the oil industry. The CNN link cited a western company that monitors shipping container trends. The manufacturing/PMI stats come from the S&P. All the stuff I cited comes from Third-parties and mainstream media sources, not directly from Russia. You're REALLY struggling with this sf. First, lets start with India and China. OF COURSE Russian exports to those countries have exploded. Why? BECAUSE NO ONE ELSE WILL BUY THEIR PRODUCTS. And in order to sell to China and India, they have to offer what they're making at a steep discount. This isn't good news for Russia. Pretending it is, is the worst form of grasping at straws. Second, those supposedly independent sources you keep citing just aren't. S&P doesn't have people in Russia to collect this data. How do you know that? What’s your source?
|
|
|
Post by JoyinMudville on Oct 3, 2023 17:12:59 GMT -5
Only a fool would take Russian statistics about their economy at face value Only a desperate person who is in denial would choose not to read the links that I’ve shared from mainstream news sources. The Yahoo/Bloomberg link cited a French company that monitors the oil industry. The CNN link cited a western company that monitors shipping container trends. The manufacturing/PMI stats come from the S&P. All the stuff I cited comes from Third-parties and mainstream media sources, not directly from Russia. 1. You’re the one who implied that Russia’s economic numbers were legit. Foolish 2. The Yahoo Finance article doesn’t say anything about Russian oil revenue and just discusses volume with one country - India 3. For the 504th time, it is revenue not volume that matters 4. It is like talking to a brick wall
|
|
|
Post by Ranger John on Oct 3, 2023 17:27:44 GMT -5
You're REALLY struggling with this sf. First, lets start with India and China. OF COURSE Russian exports to those countries have exploded. Why? BECAUSE NO ONE ELSE WILL BUY THEIR PRODUCTS. And in order to sell to China and India, they have to offer what they're making at a steep discount. This isn't good news for Russia. Pretending it is, is the worst form of grasping at straws. Second, those supposedly independent sources you keep citing just aren't. S&P doesn't have people in Russia to collect this data. How do you know that? What’s your source? How do I know what? That the US, Europe and our allies have imposed trade sanctions on Russia? Are you freaking kidding me? If you don't know that, you really need to scuttle off and stop making a fool of yourself. S&P left Russia in March of 2022: markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/s-p-global-ratings-to-withdraw-ratings-on-russian-entities-1031296583?op=1The first item is well known. The second one would have been assumed by anyone who isn't drinking Putin's Kool Aid, and would have been easily discovered by someone who's not ideologically compromised on this topic.
|
|
|
Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 17:34:58 GMT -5
First, lets start with India and China. OF COURSE Russian exports to those countries have exploded. Why? BECAUSE NO ONE ELSE WILL BUY THEIR PRODUCTS. That's false. The EU and US are not the whole world bro. The US has tried, unsuccessfully, to get Global South countries to cut their trade with Russia. The problem is, Russia exports too many goods (energy, food, rare metals, etc) for developing countries to stop doing business with them the way some wealthy countries have. And in order to sell to China and India, they have to offer what they're making at a steep discount. This isn't good news for Russia. Pretending it is, is the worst form of grasping at straws. That's true (and a weaker Ruble helps Russia export their oil and gas at a discount). Nevertheless, Russia is doing more trade than ever with India and China and it's offsetting the loss of trade between the EU and Russia.
|
|
|
Post by Ranger John on Oct 3, 2023 17:45:24 GMT -5
First, lets start with India and China. OF COURSE Russian exports to those countries have exploded. Why? BECAUSE NO ONE ELSE WILL BUY THEIR PRODUCTS. That's false. The EU and US are not the whole world bro. The US has tried, unsuccessfully, to get Global South countries to cut their trade with Russia. The problem is, Russia exports too many goods (energy, food, rare metals, etc) for developing countries to stop doing business with them the way some wealthy countries have. And in order to sell to China and India, they have to offer what they're making at a steep discount. This isn't good news for Russia. Pretending it is, is the worst form of grasping at straws. That's true (and a weaker Ruble helps Russia export their oil and gas at a discount). Nevertheless, Russia is doing more trade than ever with India and China and it's offsetting the loss of trade between the EU and Russia. The US and EU aren't the only countries that have imposed sanctions. Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Singapore the UK and others have imposed similar sanctions regimes. Except for China and India, those are the world's largest economies. You want to hang your hat on the economies of South America and Africa, you go ahead. Just understand that is an incredibly silly argument. The trade Russia is now doing with India and China is no where close to making up the loss of the European markets.
|
|
|
Post by soulflower on Oct 3, 2023 17:49:13 GMT -5
How do you know that? What’s your source? How do I know what? That the US, Europe and our allies have imposed trade sanctions on Russia? Are you freaking kidding me? If you don't know that, you really need to scuttle off and stop making a fool of yourself. S&P left Russia in March of 2022: markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/s-p-global-ratings-to-withdraw-ratings-on-russian-entities-1031296583?op=1The first item is well known. The second one would have been assumed by anyone who isn't drinking Putin's Kool Aid, and would have been easily discovered by someone who's not ideologically compromised on this topic. Fair enough. Here's S&P's October 2023 report on Russia's manufacturing output. It's pretty detailed for what it's worth. S&P Global - Stronger demand conditions drive faster improvement in Russian manufacturing sectorAlso, on the oil trade: Yellen Admits Price Cap on Russian Oil Not WorkingThe United States Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, recently told reporters that the G7 price ceiling on Russian oil has not worked as well as the West had hoped it would. According to Yellen, this is due to Moscow’s ability to build shadow services for its oil shipments and the surge in crude prices that has taken the price of a barrel of oil near to $100.
It does imply a reduction in the effectiveness of the price cap, Yellen told reporters on September 29, as quoted by Bloomberg, in what looked to be her first public acknowledgement of the West’s deficit on the matter. Yellen’s comments came after she appeared to be the first public official to admit the issue. The trade Russia is now doing with India and China is no where close to making up the loss of the European markets. That's debatable at this point. In 2021, the Trade between Russia and the EU was around $250 billion. Trade between Russia and China alone could reach $200 billion this year. I'm not sure what the numbers will be for Russia and India but India has sharply increased trade with Russia since 2022 and they're re-selling Russian oil to the EU. I know you guys don't want to hear this but the sanctions failed to cripple Russia's economy. The weak Ruble is a bad indicator for Russia but doesn't tell the whole story about the state of their economy just as our 30 trillion national debt and rising interest rates doesn't mean our economy is near collapse.
|
|
|
Post by Ranger John on Oct 3, 2023 18:17:40 GMT -5
How do I know what? That the US, Europe and our allies have imposed trade sanctions on Russia? Are you freaking kidding me? If you don't know that, you really need to scuttle off and stop making a fool of yourself. S&P left Russia in March of 2022: markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/s-p-global-ratings-to-withdraw-ratings-on-russian-entities-1031296583?op=1The first item is well known. The second one would have been assumed by anyone who isn't drinking Putin's Kool Aid, and would have been easily discovered by someone who's not ideologically compromised on this topic. Fair enough. Here's S&P's October 2023 report on Russia's manufacturing output. It's pretty detailed for what it's worth. S&P Global - Stronger demand conditions drive faster improvement in Russian manufacturing sectorAlso, on the oil trade: Yellen Admits Price Cap on Russian Oil Not WorkingThe United States Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, recently told reporters that the G7 price ceiling on Russian oil has not worked as well as the West had hoped it would. According to Yellen, this is due to Moscow’s ability to build shadow services for its oil shipments and the surge in crude prices that has taken the price of a barrel of oil near to $100.
It does imply a reduction in the effectiveness of the price cap, Yellen told reporters on September 29, as quoted by Bloomberg, in what looked to be her first public acknowledgement of the West’s deficit on the matter. Yellen’s comments came after she appeared to be the first public official to admit the issue. The trade Russia is now doing with India and China is no where close to making up the loss of the European markets. That's debatable at this point. In 2021, the Trade between Russia and the EU was around $250 billion. Trade between Russia and China alone could reach $200 billion this year. I'm not sure what the numbers will be for Russia and India but India has sharply increased trade with Russia since 2022 and they're re-selling Russian oil to the EU. I know you guys don't want to hear this but the sanctions failed to cripple Russia's economy. The weak Ruble is a bad indicator for Russia but doesn't tell the whole story about the state of their economy just as our 30 trillion national debt and rising interest rates doesn't mean our economy is near collapse. Sure. The Russian Central Bank and sundry ministries produce detailed reports. But the idea that the data itself isn't compromised by a government desperate to put lipstick on the pig that is the Russian economy is laughable. As for whether the sanctions have failed to cripple the Russian economy, in the real world, the Ruble is worth a penny, and Russia has been raising interest rates in a panic to control that for a couple months now. The idea that a country's currency is a bad indicator of the state of it's economy is ludicrous. Especially given the speed of its collapse. Again, if the Ruble were off 10% you'd have an argument. But it's not. It's collapsing. Trade between Russia and the EU was mostly the energy sector. Hell, the Russian economy is mostly the energy sector. 3 years ago, that was being transported quickly and efficiently through relatively short pipelines into one of the world's largest economies at a nice profit to Russia. Yes, there are pipelines linking China and Russia - not at anything like the volume that was going into the EU - but they exist and they're a profit center for Russia. Shipping Russian oil and gas to India means tankers, and Russia has to sell its oil and gas at a discount to India. While the trade numbers are up, the actual profits back to Russia are not because transporting the stuff is taking a significant bite out of those profits. Russia has also banned exports of refined products because almost half of their refineries have shut down and they need the little bit of diesel they have to harvest their crops. Meanwhile, we have no real idea about the true state of the Russian energy sector's infrastructure either. Most of it was operated by western companies, which all left when the war started. The fact that so many of their refineries are off-line is a good indicator that's failing too. Either because they don't have the skill to keep the refineries operational, or because their wells froze up last winter and the refineries don't have oil to refine. Probably it's a little of both.
|
|
|
Post by soulflower on Jan 30, 2024 12:49:26 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Ranger John on Jan 30, 2024 15:02:05 GMT -5
Based on IMF predictions? You're joking.
|
|