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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 30, 2023 12:30:02 GMT -5
The base is about 500 km inside Russia. This was a pretty stunning intelligence operation that probably involved local people as well. It follows on another attack a couple of weeks ago against a different air base deep in Russia that took out a heavy bomber.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 30, 2023 12:43:33 GMT -5
I remember Joy spending months last fall telling us that Ukraine would make a major breakthrough on the Svato-Kremennya front. The AFU did make gains but their gains have been reversed since last winter. I have yet to see Joy acknowledge that they lost ground on that front. That's because you don't read. I mentioned the Russian effort against Kupiansk in the very first post of this thread.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 30, 2023 12:44:58 GMT -5
After Three months, Ukrainian forces have advanced 8km. The sea of Azov is 40km away from the current frontlines. The rainy season is less than three months away. Time is not on Ukraine’s side. That’s the cold reality of the current state of the war. I remember Joy spending months last fall telling us that Ukraine would make a major breakthrough on the Svato-Kremennya front. The AFU did make gains but their gains have been reversed since last winter. I have yet to see Joy acknowledge that they lost ground on that front. Look, this war is a stalemate currently and I stand by my view that neither side can score a knockout blow or decisively win it. Both will make gains and lose ground every few weeks but it should be clear by now (almost two years into the war) that neither side can win. “Hope” is not a strategy… And I remember you spent all of last summer lambasting the 'failed Kherson offensive' only to end up with egg on your face. Maybe you should tell your boy Julian to calm down because the war just has to be a 'stalemate'
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Post by soulflower on Aug 30, 2023 12:50:39 GMT -5
Maybe you should tell your boy Julian to calm down because the war just has to be a 'stalemate' I only post his Tweets when there’s some confirmation or agreement on both sides. Sometimes the pro-Ukraine and pro-Russian bloggers/tweeters get ahead of what’s actually happening on the ground and post inaccurate information. Julian is very pro-Ukraine. He’s just more honest about the war than most pro-Ukraine people I’ve seen on Twitter. I’ve seen some information that contradicts what Julian posted so I’m waiting for more information before commenting on it. But broadly, I think he does a good job of covering the war. In any event, Ukrainian forces are shifting strategy because their initial plans have been failing so far.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 30, 2023 13:02:09 GMT -5
In any event, Ukrainian forces are shifting strategy because their initial plans have been failing so far. You don’t know what you are talking about
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Post by soulflower on Aug 30, 2023 13:07:16 GMT -5
In any event, Ukrainian forces are shifting strategy because their initial plans have been failing so far. You don’t know what you are talking about Okay General KillJoy 😂
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 30, 2023 13:12:45 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 31, 2023 13:03:08 GMT -5
They're also pushing to take the high ground between Verbove and Robotyne. That T0401 highway from Tokmak to Polohy is another critical near term objective.
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Post by soulflower on Sept 1, 2023 7:10:18 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 1, 2023 7:14:24 GMT -5
1. Summer is not over 2. Russia's hold on Crimea grows more untenable every day 3. Has the United States and our allies actually provided Ukraine with everything it says it needs? 4. Which acting or former NATO general would launch a significant ground operation without first establishing air superiority?
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Post by soulflower on Sept 1, 2023 7:18:44 GMT -5
True in a literal sense. 2. Russia's hold on Crimea grows more untenable every day Wishful thinking. 3. Has the United States and our allies actually provided Ukraine with everything it says it needs? We haven't given them NATO membership or Nukes yet, so no. 4. Which acting or former NATO general would launch a significant ground operation without first establishing air superiority? Which is why it's bizarre that Ukrainian commanders agreed with their Western counterparts to launch a major ground offensive under far less than ideal circumstances.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 1, 2023 7:24:41 GMT -5
You'll note the reference to the high ground south west. There's a key hill at the bottom of the salient about midway between Verbove and Robotyne that would give Ukraine a pretty commanding position and direct fire control over the T0401 highway as it runs through Ocheretuvate Also, a look at what trying to conduct such an operation without adequate air cover means on the ground and one of the reasons many are starting to compare this portion of the war to the Allies struggles in the bocage during June/July 1944. www.nytimes.com/2023/08/31/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-robotyne-verbove.html
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 1, 2023 7:31:04 GMT -5
True in a literal sense. 2. Russia's hold on Crimea grows more untenable every day Wishful thinking. 3. Has the United States and our allies actually provided Ukraine with everything it says it needs? We haven't given them NATO membership or Nukes yet, so no. 4. Which acting or former NATO general would launch a significant ground operation without first establishing air superiority? Which is why it's bizarre that Ukrainian commanders agreed with their Western counterparts to launch a major ground offensive under far less than ideal circumstances. 1. So, you don't have a point but instead are just making sniping because you're frustrated 2. Perhaps you haven't been paying attention to the regular Ukrainian strikes against the few bridges going in and out of Crimea or the recent raid against the key installation on the western portion of the peninsula or the strikes against the Russian fleet in Sevastopol. Russia is in a worse position today than they were a year ago and that is certainly true of Crimea 3. Ukraine hasn't asked for nuclear weapons. They have asked for longer range missiles and fighter aircraft. 4. As has been pointed out to you ad nausea, Ukraine is pursuing the strategy it believes will yield results while minimizing its own losses. 5. You were saying this exact same stuff this time last year and you ended up with egg on your face.
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Post by soulflower on Sept 1, 2023 7:33:10 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 1, 2023 7:39:00 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Sept 1, 2023 7:45:31 GMT -5
The Kerch bridge opened in 2018. Russia was able to occupy and supply Crimea long before they built the bridge. They've had a naval base in Crimea since the 1700s.
So Ben Hodges is either exaggerating again or lying...
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 1, 2023 8:01:45 GMT -5
And you keep grasping at any straw you can find without actually understanding what you're posting. It's not the minefields, it's the fact that Ukraine hasn't had the tools that a western military would use to suppress enemy fire while clearing the minefields that is the problem. If this was a NATO operation we'd have pummeled the enemy's artillery and air power into oblivion and then would then use close tactical air support (there's those F-16s that we should have given to Ukraine last summer) to prevent the enemy from firing on our engineers while they clear the mine fields. We developed those tactics in World War II. Ukraine's strategy has been to degrade Russia's artillery through counter battery fire and they're using cluster munitions to keep the Russian's heads down while their sappers clear these mine fields by hand. And, the comparison to World War II remains apt for another reason. In June and July of 1944 the allies were bogged down in the hedgerow country, also known as the bocage. This was particularly true in the American sector. Each small French farm field was surrounded by tall thick hedges which the Germans utilized for defensive positions and they exacted a horrific toll on American infantry. It took the allies a while to figure out the best tactics to take these positions and there was a famous instance of 'on the spot' improvisation - a guy named Cullin suggested mounting the now useless German beach obstacles to Sherman tanks to enable them to literally cut through the hedgerows. Regardless, even with improved tactics and some good ole fashioned ingenuity the Americans still had to clear one field after another in a painstaking process. After weeks of this they were finally able to break out in the immediate aftermath of operation Cobra. This part of Zaporizhzhia is similar to the bocage - relatively small farm fields surrounded by trees with thick undergrowth and the Russians have turned these tree lines into defensive fortifications. As illustrated in the article above, the Ukrainians are using small units to take out these fortifications one field at a time while also systematically degrading Russia's military capabilities. Whether they are able to achieve a breakout remains to be seen but attaching completely arbitrary deadlines to this endeavor is inane. In any war, plans and timelines go out the window once the battle begins. It's how you adapt to the conditions and developments on the battlefield that matter.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 1, 2023 8:02:35 GMT -5
The Kerch bridge opened in 2018. Russia was able to occupy and supply Crimea long before they built the bridge. They've had a naval base in Crimea since the 1700s. And I had meatloaf for dinner last night.
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Post by soulflower on Sept 1, 2023 8:17:07 GMT -5
And you keep grasping at any straw you can find without actually understanding what you're posting. It's not the minefields, it's the fact that Ukraine hasn't had the tools that a western military would use to suppress enemy fire while clearing the minefields that is the problem. If this was a NATO operation we'd have pummeled the enemy's artillery and air power into oblivion and then would then use close tactical air support (there's those F-16s that we should have given to Ukraine last summer) to prevent the enemy from firing on our engineers while they clear the mine fields. We developed those tactics in World War II. Ukraine's strategy has been to degrade Russia's artillery through counter battery fire and they're using cluster munitions to keep the Russian's heads down while their sappers clear these mine fields by hand. And, the comparison to World War II remains apt for another reason. In June and July of 1944 the allies were bogged down in the hedgerow country, also known as the bocage. This was particularly true in the American sector. Each small French farm field was surrounded by tall thick hedges which the Germans utilized for defensive positions and they exacted a horrific toll on American infantry. It took the allies a while to figure out the best tactics to take these positions and there was a famous instance of 'on the spot' improvisation - a guy named Cullin suggested mounting the now useless German beach obstacles to Sherman tanks to enable them to literally cut through the hedgerows. Regardless, even with improved tactics and some good ole fashioned ingenuity the Americans still had to clear one field after another in a painstaking process. After weeks of this they were finally able to break out in the immediate aftermath of operation Cobra. This part of Zaporizhzhia is similar to the bocage - relatively small farm fields surrounded by trees with thick undergrowth and the Russians have turned these tree lines into defensive fortifications. As illustrated in the article above, the Ukrainians are using small units to take out these fortifications one field at a time while also systematically degrading Russia's military capabilities. Whether they are able to achieve a breakout remains to be seen but attaching completely arbitrary deadlines to this endeavor is inane. In any war, plans and timelines go out the window once the battle begins. It's how you adapt to the conditions and developments on the battlefield that matter. Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition against an enemy that is able to produce their own weapons and ammo faster than Ukraine can replace their weapons and ammo (due to the logistics problems asap with getting aid from various countries). They cannot win a war of attrition against a country that has three times more citizens than Ukraine has. If it’s an unconventional war, Ukraine may have some success but the attritional war that is currently being fought favors Russia which has more manpower and military assets. In spite of Russia’s advantages, they too have struggled to advance more than incrementally and the frontlines are still largely unchanged since November of last year…
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 1, 2023 8:32:01 GMT -5
Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition against an enemy that is able to produce their own weapons and ammo faster than Ukraine can replace their weapons and ammo (due to the logistics problems asap with getting aid from various countries). They cannot win a war of attrition against a country that has three times more citizens than Ukraine has. If it’s an unconventional war, Ukraine may have some success but the attritional war that is currently being fought favors Russia which has more manpower and military assets. Ukraine is arguably conducting a successful campaign of attrition against Russian forces right now and they've been doing so for months. We keep pointing that out to you but you simply refuse to listen. As for your definitive statement about what Ukraine can or cannot do, I would think someone who has been so consistently proven wrong on this topic would try a little humility before, yet again, trying to predict the future. cepa.org/article/ukraines-valley-forge-moment/
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Post by Rael on Sept 1, 2023 8:39:13 GMT -5
You keep looking to WWII for inspiration but WWI is the more apt historical comparison As just a quick observation, didn't the aggressor lose WWI? Just thought it pertinent.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 1, 2023 8:48:58 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Sept 1, 2023 9:13:02 GMT -5
You keep looking to WWII for inspiration but WWI is the more apt historical comparison As just a quick observation, didn't the aggressor lose WWI? Just thought it pertinent. Anything’s possible but I’ve never said Russia can or will win this war. I just don’t think Ukraine will be able to decisively win the war if their objective is to take back 100% of their territory. Most of the world will not view this war as a “win” for Russia if they’re not able to do more than occupy more than 1/5 of Ukraine. All I’m saying is the at it’s increasingly becoming clearer that neither side can win this war unless they reduce their maximalist objectives…
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Post by WKDWZD on Sept 1, 2023 10:16:45 GMT -5
You keep looking to WWII for inspiration but WWI is the more apt historical comparison As just a quick observation, didn't the aggressor lose WWI? Just thought it pertinent. Yeah, but at what cost? A lost generation, hopefully this war doesn't reach those levels. In terms of battle lines and ground warfare it definitely resembles the Great War more than WWII.
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Post by WKDWZD on Sept 1, 2023 10:18:35 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 1, 2023 10:23:05 GMT -5
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Post by WKDWZD on Sept 1, 2023 10:27:35 GMT -5
ah! It's not a link, it's a PDF download. Never mind.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 1, 2023 10:29:25 GMT -5
Ukraine claims/confirms that it's recent attack on the Pskov airbase took place from inside Russia. That means that Ukrainian special operations troops are working with some type of indigenous/localized resistance to conduct these attacks. That's not great news if you're Putin. www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66682503
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Post by JoyinMudville on Sept 1, 2023 11:17:14 GMT -5
ah! It's not a link, it's a PDF download. Never mind. Here's another... historical footage of a Stuart tank going through a hedgerow with the attachment It was actually a big allied intelligence failure. They were looking at high altitude photos and assumed that the French hedgerows were similar to what they were seeing in Britain - "These hedge-rows, hardly hedge-rows, little lines Of sportive wood run wild" In reality they were much taller and thicker, usually with one entrance. So, a couple of Germans tucked away in a corner, with a panzerfaust and a machine pre-sited for that entrance could decimate a platoon coming through that entrance in pretty short order. The relevance to the current discussion is... No one, not the Brits, the Canadians, nor the Americans met their D-Day objectives. The Americans got horribly bogged down in the days after D-Day because of stiffer German resistance and unforeseen circumstances (the hedgerows). The Brits and Canadians also struggled for more than a month to capture Caen which was their objective for D-Day. All the armies had to adapt to the battlefield and develop or refine their tactics on the spot - this included better coordinating tactical air support. Successful militaries are able to do this and it is what Ukraine has been doing for the past two months - actually since February.
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Post by soulflower on Sept 1, 2023 11:27:13 GMT -5
As just a quick observation, didn't the aggressor lose WWI? Just thought it pertinent. Yeah, but at what cost? A lost generation, hopefully this war doesn't reach those levels. In terms of battle lines and ground warfare it definitely resembles the Great War more than WWII. Also, the comparisons to the American Revolution don't apply here. Britain had to cross a huge ocean to resupply their troops in the North America. In contrast, Russia has a long land border with Ukraine so occupying the easternmost parts of Ukraine indefinitely is far easier for them even if they fail to advance further west into Ukraine. Better comparisons from American history to this war are the Mexican-American war and the American civil war. On the civil war comparison, while it could be argued that like the Confederacy overcame some of their disadvantages by using better tactics (similar to Ukraine), they ultimately were unable to out-attrit the Union, which had far more troops and far more military assets (like Russia compared to Ukraine). A war of attrition doesn't favor the side that has less manpower and less weapons. If the goal of Western support for Ukraine is to keep the Russian military bogged down in Ukraine so they don't threaten other European countries, that seems to have been achieved already. If the goal of our support is to help Ukraine recover all territory that they've lost to Russia since 2014, we're pretty far from that being achieved and it may never be achieved short of political changes in Russia. In other words, Ukraine is unlikely to achieve their objectives via a ground war with Russia but that doesn't rule out the distant possibility that Russia experiences a domestic political implosion which disables their ability to wage war in Ukraine. I understand why some are hoping for that but as I always say, it's unwise to base military and political strategy on best case scenarios or wishful thinking.
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