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Post by soulflower on Aug 26, 2023 12:20:50 GMT -5
It's become increasingly clear that, in the south, this offensive is about roads. The southern region is mostly flat and rural. The grassy areas are covered with land mines. So yeah, it's best for armored vehicles to stay on the roads but that exposes them to artillery fire. I can't see US troops doing an offensive in that environment without adequate air support and air defenses. What Ukrainian forces are attempting to do is very difficult and will cost a lot more lives before it's over. The environment in northeast Ukraine is almost the opposite. There are more forests which give some cover to infantry troops and defensive fortifications. There are also more towns and urban areas than in the south.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 26, 2023 14:12:22 GMT -5
Like clockwork at this point. Yeap
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 26, 2023 22:43:20 GMT -5
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Post by pickle20 on Aug 28, 2023 10:00:04 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Aug 28, 2023 10:37:17 GMT -5
Huh? They said they captured Robotyne a few days ago. Aug 22 - www.wtxl.com/ukrainian-solidiers-in-us-tanks-liberate-robotyne-and-free-civiliansFighting has been happening there for a few weeks now and it looks like they still don't fully have it under their control at this time. Update - For perspective, the green shaded areas on the map are Ukraine's advances in the counteroffensive after almost three months of heavy fighting
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 28, 2023 14:36:27 GMT -5
Huh? They said they captured Robotyne a few days ago. Aug 22 - www.wtxl.com/ukrainian-solidiers-in-us-tanks-liberate-robotyne-and-free-civiliansFighting has been happening there for a few weeks now and it looks like they still don't fully have it under their control at this time. Update - For perspective, the green shaded areas on the map are Ukraine's advances in the counteroffensive after almost three months of heavy fighting They've arguably taken more territory than the Russians did during their 'great winter offensive' But, more importantly, they've been systematically destroying the Russian military in the theater. Even General Wiley (your favorite) says so. Here's another favorite of yours. He seems to be your go to guy when you want to claim that things aren't going well for Ukraine. although, he has a slightly different take than I do. I think the Ukrainians are going to push over to the T0401 Highway that runs SW to NE from Tokmak to Polohy - either by going through Verbove or perhaps by pushing to between Ocheretuvate and Romanivs'ke. You can see Romanivs'ke and that highway in the lower right corner of his map
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Post by soulflower on Aug 28, 2023 14:44:54 GMT -5
Huh? They said they captured Robotyne a few days ago. Aug 22 - www.wtxl.com/ukrainian-solidiers-in-us-tanks-liberate-robotyne-and-free-civiliansFighting has been happening there for a few weeks now and it looks like they still don't fully have it under their control at this time. Update - For perspective, the green shaded areas on the map are Ukraine's advances in the counteroffensive after almost three months of heavy fighting They've arguably taken more territory than the Russians did during their 'great winter offensive' But, more importantly, they've been systematically destroying the Russian military in the theater. Even General Wiley (your favorite) says so. Here's another favorite of yours. He seems to be your go to guy when you want to claim that things aren't going well for Ukraine. although, he has a slightly different take than I do. I think the Ukrainians are going to push over to the T0401 Highway that runs SW to NE from Tokmak to Polohy - either by going through Verbove or perhaps by pushing to between Ocheretuvate and Romanivs'ke. You can see Romanivs'ke and that highway in the lower right corner of his map They're still a long way from Tomak Three months of heavy casualties for 8km. This is moving at the pace of Russia's Bakhmut offensive which took nine months. Ukraine's problem is, the rainy season starts in October. So the window for them to make major gains in this offensive is closing fast.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 28, 2023 15:13:42 GMT -5
They've arguably taken more territory than the Russians did during their 'great winter offensive' But, more importantly, they've been systematically destroying the Russian military in the theater. Even General Wiley (your favorite) says so. Here's another favorite of yours. He seems to be your go to guy when you want to claim that things aren't going well for Ukraine. although, he has a slightly different take than I do. I think the Ukrainians are going to push over to the T0401 Highway that runs SW to NE from Tokmak to Polohy - either by going through Verbove or perhaps by pushing to between Ocheretuvate and Romanivs'ke. You can see Romanivs'ke and that highway in the lower right corner of his map They're still a long way from Tomak Three months of heavy casualties for 8km. This is moving at the pace of Russia's Bakhmut offensive which took nine months. Ukraine's problem is, the rainy season starts in October. So the window for them to make major gains in this offensive is closing fast. Random tweets are a sorry excuse for actual analysis, much less strategic thinking. Why is Tokmak important? Think hard now
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Post by soulflower on Aug 28, 2023 15:23:54 GMT -5
Random tweets are a sorry excuse for actual analysis, much less strategic thinking. Oh, I forgot. Only Joy is allowed to post random Tweets about Ukraine. My apologies good sir The Tweet I posted makes basically the same observation as the articles I've previously posted about how Ukrainian forces haven't advanced very far after three months of heavy fighting. And he cited a pro-Ukraine map.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 28, 2023 15:25:31 GMT -5
Random tweets are a sorry excuse for actual analysis, much less strategic thinking. Oh, I forgot. Only Joy is allowed to post random Tweets about Ukraine. My apologies good sir The Tweet I posted makes basically the same observation as the articles I've previously posted about how Ukrainian forces haven't advanced very far after three months of heavy fighting. And he cited a pro-Ukraine map. Beyond the fact that you don't understand what Ukraine has been doing since June... you can't answer the question.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 28, 2023 16:40:04 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Aug 28, 2023 17:19:26 GMT -5
We’re Ukraine’s lifeline. We’re propping up their government, pensions, and armed forces.
But our military shouldn’t be allowed to give them advice or make recommendations? That will go over well with American voters.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 28, 2023 17:40:49 GMT -5
We’re Ukraine’s lifeline. We’re propping up their government, pensions, and armed forces. But our military shouldn’t be allowed to give them advice or make recommendations? That will go over well with American voters. Still haven't answered my question about Tokmak... I mean, you put up some random tweet about the distance from Robotyne to Tokmak and said, 'they're a long way from Tokmak.' So, you must have some insight as to the significance of that small city. Let's hear it.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 28, 2023 17:44:56 GMT -5
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Post by WKDWZD on Aug 29, 2023 5:23:23 GMT -5
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Post by pickle20 on Aug 29, 2023 6:19:44 GMT -5
Senseless because Russia invaded and forced them to fight and die for their homeland, yes.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 29, 2023 6:42:42 GMT -5
Senseless because Russia invaded and forced them to fight and die for their homeland, yes. Are they really dying for their homeland? Or are they dying for Western hegemony over eastern Europe? Some of our politicians seem content with the bloodshed over there not ending any time soon because it allegedly “weakens” Russia at no cost in human lives for Americans. Maybe it’s both but it’s still senseless nevertheless.
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Post by pickle20 on Aug 29, 2023 6:54:30 GMT -5
Senseless because Russia invaded and forced them to fight and die for their homeland, yes. Are they really dying for their homeland? Or are they dying for Western hegemony over eastern Europe? Some of our politicians seem content with the bloodshed over there not ending any time soon because it allegedly “weakens” Russia at no cost in human lives for Americans. Maybe it’s both but it’s still senseless nevertheless. Since you’re the one doubting what they’re fighting for maybe you should ask them. Or check Twitter. Or some polls. As a sovereign nation they should be able to fight for whatever they want their reasoning to be. To me they fight to kick the Russians out of their country.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 29, 2023 8:13:23 GMT -5
Are they really dying for their homeland? Or are they dying for Western hegemony over eastern Europe? Some of our politicians seem content with the bloodshed over there not ending any time soon because it allegedly “weakens” Russia at no cost in human lives for Americans. Maybe it’s both but it’s still senseless nevertheless. Since you’re the one doubting what they’re fighting for maybe you should ask them. Or check Twitter. Or some polls. As a sovereign nation they should be able to fight for whatever they want their reasoning to be. To me they fight to kick the Russians out of their country. Sure but let’s not pretend that Ukrainians are a monolith. They don’t get a vote on the war. Ukrainian men are being conscripted to fight in the war whether they support it or not. Also, it’s funny how the word “sovereign” never applies to Yemen, Iraq or Syria. Two countries that want our troops to leave and one that has been under siege from Saudi Arabia for years…
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 29, 2023 10:39:38 GMT -5
Senseless because Russia invaded and forced them to fight and die for their homeland, yes. Are they really dying for their homeland? Or are they dying for Western hegemony over eastern Europe? This is obnoxious.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 29, 2023 10:42:53 GMT -5
Since you’re the one doubting what they’re fighting for maybe you should ask them. Or check Twitter. Or some polls. As a sovereign nation they should be able to fight for whatever they want their reasoning to be. To me they fight to kick the Russians out of their country. Sure but let’s not pretend that Ukrainians are a monolith. They don’t get a vote on the war. Ukrainian men are being conscripted to fight in the war whether they support it or not. Also, it’s funny how the word “sovereign” never applies to Yemen, Iraq or Syria. Two countries that want our troops to leave and one that has been under siege from Saudi Arabia for years… Soulflower diversion +2 As for Iraq, we're there because of a joint agreement signed with the Iraqi government.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 29, 2023 10:57:03 GMT -5
Sure but let’s not pretend that Ukrainians are a monolith. They don’t get a vote on the war. Ukrainian men are being conscripted to fight in the war whether they support it or not. Also, it’s funny how the word “sovereign” never applies to Yemen, Iraq or Syria. Two countries that want our troops to leave and one that has been under siege from Saudi Arabia for years… Soulflower diversion +2 As for Iraq, we're there because of a joint agreement signed with the Iraqi government. The Iraqis can’t force our troops to leave but they want them to leave. They don’t have the power to stand up to us. Nor does Syria’s government. This is the “rules based order” that Tony Blinken speaks of: Iraq parliament passes resolution to expel US-led coalition troops from country “The Iraqi government must work to end the presence of any foreign troops on Iraqi soil and prohibit them from using its land, airspace or water for any reason.”
The resolution’s main aim is to get the United States to withdraw some its approximately 5,000 troops present in different parts of Iraq. It reflects the concern of many in Iraq that the US strike killing Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis could engulf them in a major war between two bigger powers.
“The government should work on ending the presence of all foreign forces,” Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mohamed al-Halbousi said after the vote.
Parliament resolutions, unlike laws, are non-binding to the Iraqi government, but this one has the backing of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, who had earlier called on parliament to end foreign troop presence.www.france24.com/en/20200105-iraq-parliament-passes-resolution-to-expel-us-led-coalition-troops-from-country
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 29, 2023 11:04:31 GMT -5
Soulflower diversion +2 As for Iraq, we're there because of a joint agreement signed with the Iraqi government. The Iraqis can’t force our troops to leave but they want them to leave. They don’t have the power to stand up to us. Nor does Syria’s government. This is the “rules based order” that Tony Blinken speaks of: Iraq parliament passes resolution to expel US-led coalition troops from country “The Iraqi government must work to end the presence of any foreign troops on Iraqi soil and prohibit them from using its land, airspace or water for any reason.”
The resolution’s main aim is to get the United States to withdraw some its approximately 5,000 troops present in different parts of Iraq. It reflects the concern of many in Iraq that the US strike killing Iranian General Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis could engulf them in a major war between two bigger powers.
“The government should work on ending the presence of all foreign forces,” Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mohamed al-Halbousi said after the vote.
Parliament resolutions, unlike laws, are non-binding to the Iraqi government, but this one has the backing of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi, who had earlier called on parliament to end foreign troop presence.www.france24.com/en/20200105-iraq-parliament-passes-resolution-to-expel-us-led-coalition-troops-from-country1) It's about half that number 2) We have a bi-lateral cooperation agreement with Iraq 3) I know you'd rather have discuss anything other than Putin's genocidal invasion of Ukraine but that's what this thread is about. If you want to discuss Iraq, start a thread about it instead of trying to derail this one. 4) I've yet to hear you answer my question about the importance of Tokmak. Odd, since you brought it up I assumed you had an opinion about its strategic significance. I guess not. I guess you were just throwing up a random tweet.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 29, 2023 11:11:37 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 29, 2023 11:14:25 GMT -5
This map gives a better sense of the current battle and shows that key highway T0-0401 east of Verbove. You can see how seizing that highway effectively cuts a main supply route running from Tokmak in the southwest to Polohy in the northeast.
You can also see how it converges with the T0-0408 in Tokmak which is just off the map to the southwest
Euromaidan press is reporting that occupation officials are fleeing Tokmak but that hasn't been confirmed by other reporting.
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Post by soulflower on Aug 29, 2023 11:27:08 GMT -5
Ukraine has claimed twice in the last two weeks that they’ve captured Robotyne.
Fighting continues in the town.
Russian forces have reportedly counterattacked.
It’s not clear from here whether or not Ukrainian forces have advanced south of Robotyne.
Fog of war.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 29, 2023 12:05:37 GMT -5
Finally Ukrainian forces are south of Robotyne at Novoprokopivka. By the T0-0408 that's about 25 km to Tokmak. The east-west rail line connecting the Donbas with Kherson/Crimea runs through that town. That rail line is now in the range of HIMARS (Tokmak is already getting hit by these weapons). Depending on the delivery system, Ukraine's 155 mm artillery have a range of about 20 - 35 km. They usually stage their howitzers a few kilometers back from the front lines so, right now, the railway is just at the edge/out of range for the 155's. If Ukraine can advance a few more kilometers (either south of Novoprokopivka or in their push toward Ocheretuvate) they will put the rail line under constant fire control. That will create a giant logistical problem for the Russians and not just for Tokmak. Again, there are two supply routes running from the Donbas to Crimea. One is this railway, the other is the M14 highway which is further south. The third supply route is the Kerch bridge. There's a reason the Russians are shifting troops from other fronts to this area. www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-28-2023
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Post by JoyinMudville on Aug 30, 2023 1:49:49 GMT -5
Oh, speaking of collapse...
Russians surrenduring, Russians refusing to follow orders, where have I heard this before...
/photo/1
I love it when Soulflower starts yet another Ukraine thread because it gives me yet more opportunities to talk about how much of a total cluster f%ck this is for Putin and his once vaunted military.
Slava Ukraini
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Post by pickle20 on Aug 30, 2023 8:47:38 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Aug 30, 2023 9:14:36 GMT -5
After Three months, Ukrainian forces have advanced 8km.
The sea of Azov is 40km away from the current frontlines.
The rainy season is less than three months away.
Time is not on Ukraine’s side.
That’s the cold reality of the current state of the war.
I remember Joy spending months last fall telling us that Ukraine would make a major breakthrough on the Svato-Kremennya front. The AFU did make gains but their gains have been reversed since last winter. I have yet to see Joy acknowledge that they lost ground on that front.
Look, this war is a stalemate currently and I stand by my view that neither side can score a knockout blow or decisively win it. Both will make gains and lose ground every few weeks but it should be clear by now (almost two years into the war) that neither side can win.
“Hope” is not a strategy…
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