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Post by soulflower on Jan 27, 2024 7:59:16 GMT -5
If the election were held today, Biden would most likely lose.
The good news is, the election is months away.
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Post by upstream on Jan 27, 2024 8:09:42 GMT -5
If the election were held today, Biden would most likely lose. The good news is, the election is months away. Weird logic but whatever. If the election were held today the circumstances and atmosphere would be completely different. Like hopefully there was actually a campaign held before Election Day occurred on 1/27/24.
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Post by carllafong on Jan 27, 2024 8:16:51 GMT -5
If the election were held today, Biden would most likely lose. The good news is, the election is months away. Weird logic but whatever. If the election were held today the circumstances and atmosphere would be completely different. Like hopefully there was actually a campaign held before Election Day occurred on 1/27/24. If the election were held today, Trump would likely lose that too. There you have my message board expert opinion.
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Post by soulflower on Jan 27, 2024 8:38:57 GMT -5
If the election were held today, Biden would most likely lose. The good news is, the election is months away. Weird logic but whatever. If the election were held today the circumstances and atmosphere would be completely different. Like hopefully there was actually a campaign held before Election Day occurred on 1/27/24. It's not weird at all. Biden is clearly at a low-point in his presidency right now. To not even acknowledge that Biden is struggling politically right now is to deny objective reality. In no way am I saying he doesn't have time to change course before voting starts in October.
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Post by pickle20 on Jan 27, 2024 8:45:43 GMT -5
Odd that Rasmussen polls continually have him like 10 points higher than most other polls.
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Post by upstream on Jan 27, 2024 8:47:04 GMT -5
Weird logic but whatever. If the election were held today the circumstances and atmosphere would be completely different. Like hopefully there was actually a campaign held before Election Day occurred on 1/27/24. It's not weird at all. Biden is clearly at a low-point in his presidency right now. To not even acknowledge that Biden is struggling politically right now is to deny objective reality. In no way am I saying he doesn't have time to change course before voting starts in October. It really is. That’s like last week saying. If the Ravens game ended at half-time. They would’ve tied. No one’s denying Biden’s political reality. We’re not conjuring up imaginary impossible hypotheticals either.
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Post by soulflower on Jan 27, 2024 8:54:59 GMT -5
Odd that Rasmussen polls continually have him like 10 points higher than most other polls. Rasmussen polls aren't generally considered reputable. They use questionable methods. Instead of cherry-picking polls, why not focus on the averages of all the polls? See the graph below: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/joe-biden/?ex_cid=abcpromoThe good news is, Biden has time to turn things around.
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Post by carllafong on Jan 27, 2024 9:00:17 GMT -5
The Don has a new campaign slogan...
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up2
Full Member
Posts: 1,867
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Post by up2 on Jan 27, 2024 9:02:47 GMT -5
If the election were held today, Biden would most likely lose. The good news is, the election is months away. Say the polls... That kind of prediction sounds similar to sports announcers who look at matchups on paper. Good thing they actually have to play the game - right? People say all kinds of things, speculate about all kinds of things, but when they are sitting in private making a decision, most will hopefully reflect carefully about the consequences of their choices - it gets real then. And that's not as predictable as the polling may indicate. At least not in the aggregate.
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Post by soulflower on Jan 27, 2024 9:16:06 GMT -5
If the election were held today, Biden would most likely lose. The good news is, the election is months away. Say the polls... That kind of prediction sounds similar to sports announcers who look at matchups on paper. Good thing they actually have to play the game - right? People say all kinds of things, speculate about all kinds of things, but when they are sitting in private making a decision, most will hopefully reflect carefully about the consequences of their choices - it gets real then. And that's not as predictable as the polling may indicate. At least not in the aggregate. Polls are the best gauge of public opinion at any given time. There’s no substitute for weighing public opinions short of an election. And the polling averages predict the eventual winner of the election 90% of the time. I also think you’re underestimating how unpopular Biden is currently and overestimating how unpopular Trump is currently. In spite of J6 and everything else, Trump could still win re-election. He’s very much a viable candidate while Biden is the weakest Dem incumbent since Jimmy Carter…
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Post by grindelwald on Jan 27, 2024 9:23:11 GMT -5
If the election were held today, Biden would most likely lose. The good news is, the election is months away. Right, but if the election were held today, we would have had several months of rigorous campaigning, Trump rallies, debates, etc. and people would have likely already retreated to their partisan corners. In other words, if my aunt had balls... you know the rest.
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up2
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Posts: 1,867
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Post by up2 on Jan 27, 2024 9:31:50 GMT -5
Say the polls... That kind of prediction sounds similar to sports announcers who look at matchups on paper. Good thing they actually have to play the game - right? People say all kinds of things, speculate about all kinds of things, but when they are sitting in private making a decision, most will hopefully reflect carefully about the consequences of their choices - it gets real then. And that's not as predictable as the polling may indicate. At least not in the aggregate. Polls are the best gauge of public opinion at any given time. There’s no substitute for weighing public opinions short of an election. And the polling averages predict the eventual winner of the election 90% of the time. I also think you’re underestimating how unpopular Biden is currently and overestimating how unpopular Trump is currently. In spite of J6 and everything else, Trump could still win re-election. He’s very much a viable candidate while Biden is the weakest Dem incumbent since Jimmy Carter… You say that as though I'm trying to convince folks Trump cannot win. I'm not. My only point is polls are fairly fickle, just like the voters. And in a volatile election year, pollsters can measure, guess, opine, and vacillate until election day when voters actually cast their ballot. History has shown us many times where polls were right and where they were wrong, and those folks sweating their jobs at these firms like Ipsos then rationalize away in order to maintain their job security.
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Post by grindelwald on Jan 27, 2024 9:35:00 GMT -5
A lot of the "somewhat disapprove" crowd will vote for him over Trump.
Obviously, if Haley was the nominee, Biden would be beyond toast.
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Post by soulflower on Jan 27, 2024 9:52:31 GMT -5
Polls are the best gauge of public opinion at any given time. There’s no substitute for weighing public opinions short of an election. And the polling averages predict the eventual winner of the election 90% of the time. I also think you’re underestimating how unpopular Biden is currently and overestimating how unpopular Trump is currently. In spite of J6 and everything else, Trump could still win re-election. He’s very much a viable candidate while Biden is the weakest Dem incumbent since Jimmy Carter… You say that as though I'm trying to convince folks Trump cannot win. I'm not. My only point is polls are fairly fickle, just like the voters. And in a volatile election year, pollsters can measure, guess, opine, and vacillate until election day when voters actually cast their ballot. History has shown us many times where polls were right and where they were wrong, and those folks sweating their jobs at these firms like Ipsos then rationalize away in order to maintain their job security. See the graph I posted earlier. The downward trajectory for Biden since 2022 is clear. Of course I’m aware that public opinion trends can and do change. Hence why I noted that Biden has time to turn things around before November. There’s nothing controversial about what I said. Biden is at a low point in his presidency at the moment.
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Post by soulflower on Jan 27, 2024 9:55:53 GMT -5
If the election were held today, Biden would most likely lose. The good news is, the election is months away. Right, but if the election were held today, we would have had several months of rigorous campaigning, Trump rallies, debates, etc. and people would have likely already retreated to their partisan corners. In other words, if my aunt had balls... you know the rest. I doubt that there will be debates between Trump and Biden. The only unanswerable question is, how many states will include Third-Party candidates like RFK or Jill Stein on the ballot? Neither will be on the ballot for all 50 states.
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Post by upstream on Jan 27, 2024 10:28:08 GMT -5
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up2
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Post by up2 on Jan 27, 2024 10:34:44 GMT -5
You say that as though I'm trying to convince folks Trump cannot win. I'm not. My only point is polls are fairly fickle, just like the voters. And in a volatile election year, pollsters can measure, guess, opine, and vacillate until election day when voters actually cast their ballot. History has shown us many times where polls were right and where they were wrong, and those folks sweating their jobs at these firms like Ipsos then rationalize away in order to maintain their job security. See the graph I posted earlier. The downward trajectory for Biden since 2022 is clear. Of course I’m aware that public opinion trends can and do change. Hence why I noted that Biden has time to turn things around before November. There’s nothing controversial about what I said. Biden is at a low point in his presidency at the moment. I'm not implying anything you've said is controversial, only irrelevant... The average American voter doesn't care much about polls other than political geeks, and the pundits who harp on them incessantly.
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Post by soulflower on Jan 27, 2024 10:49:49 GMT -5
See the graph I posted earlier. The downward trajectory for Biden since 2022 is clear. Of course I’m aware that public opinion trends can and do change. Hence why I noted that Biden has time to turn things around before November. There’s nothing controversial about what I said. Biden is at a low point in his presidency at the moment. I'm not implying anything you've said is controversial, only irrelevant... The average American voter doesn't care much about polls other than political geeks, and the pundits who harp on them incessantly. True but that doesn’t mean polls don’t have value. Political campaigns spend tons of money on polls because they have value. Hence why there are so many of them. My observation that Biden is not popular right now is no different than me acknowledging that it’s 50 degrees outside today. It’s a comment about the objective reality.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Jan 27, 2024 11:00:30 GMT -5
Say the polls... That kind of prediction sounds similar to sports announcers who look at matchups on paper. Good thing they actually have to play the game - right? People say all kinds of things, speculate about all kinds of things, but when they are sitting in private making a decision, most will hopefully reflect carefully about the consequences of their choices - it gets real then. And that's not as predictable as the polling may indicate. At least not in the aggregate. Polls are the best gauge of public opinion at any given time. There’s no substitute for weighing public opinions short of an election. And the Dems keep winning them. Most recent example Meanwhile, the other places where we've recently had election you had a significant percentage of Republican and center right independents saying flat out that they just will not vote for Trump
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Post by JoyinMudville on Jan 27, 2024 11:03:15 GMT -5
Polls are the best gauge of public opinion at any given time. There’s no substitute for weighing public opinions short of an election. And the polling averages predict the eventual winner of the election 90% of the time. I also think you’re underestimating how unpopular Biden is currently and overestimating how unpopular Trump is currently. In spite of J6 and everything else, Trump could still win re-election. He’s very much a viable candidate while Biden is the weakest Dem incumbent since Jimmy Carter… You say that as though I'm trying to convince folks Trump cannot win. I'm not. This... Everything at the moment points to this being a tightly contested race and Trump could most certainly win. It is just not as doom and gloom as Soul has been proclaiming on here several times a day for the past year
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Post by stevez51 on Jan 27, 2024 11:15:55 GMT -5
If the election were held today, Biden would most likely lose. The good news is, the election is months away. With more good news stories to follow to try to hammer it in your head.
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Post by michiganjoe on Jan 27, 2024 11:30:21 GMT -5
It's not unusual to see the vulnerability of an incumbent president exaggerated. Many Republicans (Trump included) continue to believe that the Presidency was there for the taking in '12 and Mitt simply blew it. The reality of the data was that Obama was never in any serious danger of losing.
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Post by soulflower on Jan 27, 2024 11:40:35 GMT -5
You say that as though I'm trying to convince folks Trump cannot win. I'm not. This... Everything at the moment points to this being a tightly contested race and Trump could most certainly win. It is just not as doom and gloom as Soul has been proclaiming on here several times a day for the past year It should concern you that it’s even close when Biden’s opponent has 90+ indictments.
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Post by soulflower on Jan 27, 2024 11:42:13 GMT -5
It's not unusual to see the vulnerability of an incumbent president exaggerated. Many Republicans (Trump included) continue to believe that the Presidency was there for the taking in '12 and Mitt simply blew it. The reality of the data was that Obama was never in any serious danger of losing. Biden is polling far worse currently than Obama or Trump were at any point in their presidencies. Biden also doesn’t have the die hard base of support that Obama had and Trump has.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Jan 27, 2024 11:48:25 GMT -5
How tiresome to watch someone walk through their life every day spouting doom and gloom
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Post by JoyinMudville on Jan 27, 2024 11:49:48 GMT -5
This... Everything at the moment points to this being a tightly contested race and Trump could most certainly win. It is just not as doom and gloom as Soul has been proclaiming on here several times a day for the past year It should concern you that it’s even close when Biden’s opponent has 90+ indictments. I consider Trump a direct threat to our democracy so yes, I am concerned. But the Democrats are in a much stronger position that your constant doom posting indicates.
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Post by soulflower on Jan 27, 2024 11:52:02 GMT -5
It should concern you that it’s even close when Biden’s opponent has 90+ indictments. I consider Trump a direct threat to our democracy so yes, I am concerned. But the Democrats are in a much stronger position that your constant doom posting indicates. Biden is not “the Democrats”. I never said the Democrats as a party are unpopular. I’m saying Biden is unpopular and would probably lose if the Presidential election were today.
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Post by soulflower on Jan 27, 2024 11:53:13 GMT -5
How tiresome to watch someone walk through their life every day spouting doom and gloom It’s how older millennials roll 😄
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Post by JoyinMudville on Jan 27, 2024 11:59:48 GMT -5
I consider Trump a direct threat to our democracy so yes, I am concerned. But the Democrats are in a much stronger position that your constant doom posting indicates. Biden is not “the Democrats”. I never said the Democrats as a party are unpopular. I’m saying Biden is unpopular and would probably lose if the Presidential election were today. Based on what we just saw in New Hampshire, that's not true. Look at the self-proclaimed moderates and independents, they didn't vote for Trump. Biden is a Democrat. Yes it is possible that down-ballot democratic candidates outperform Biden but over all the Democrats have been outperforming in recent elections from Ohio to Wisconsin to other special elections in 2023.
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Post by Ranger John on Jan 27, 2024 12:13:17 GMT -5
I consider Trump a direct threat to our democracy so yes, I am concerned. But the Democrats are in a much stronger position that your constant doom posting indicates. Biden is not “the Democrats”. I never said the Democrats as a party are unpopular. I’m saying Biden is unpopular and would probably lose if the Presidential election were today. You say that... but what Democrats do you think would beat Trump? I think Obama and maybe Newsome would have a shot at it, but it would still be close. After that, everyone else is either demonstrably worse that Biden (Harris, Hillary, Warren and Buttigeig), even older than Biden (Sanders), on their way to switching parties (Phillips and Gabbard) or nobody knows who the hell they are.
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