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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 13, 2024 14:36:46 GMT -5
Aid to Israel is a roadblock for some House Dems in voting for the Discharge Petition. By my math, you're going to need about 30 to 40 Republicans to sign on in order to get to 218. The support is there but many are going to be hesitant to do something seen as undercutting the speaker from their own party. Although, as for AOC, why not sign the discharge petition and then try to attach conditions on aid to Israel via the amendment process?
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Post by soulflower on Mar 13, 2024 14:43:53 GMT -5
I don’t think AOC is alone. I suspect that a few more Progressive Dems won’t sign on to the Bill as long as it includes aid for Israel.
The Discharge petition still seems like a long shot.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 13, 2024 14:51:11 GMT -5
I don’t think AOC is alone. I suspect that a few more Progressive Dems won’t sign on to the Bill as long as it includes aid for Israel. The Discharge petition still seems like a long shot. Which is why I said you're probably going to need 30/40 Republicans to sign on.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 23, 2024 0:25:08 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 25, 2024 16:15:18 GMT -5
Starting to feel a bit like Lucy and football with this guy but we'll see.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 27, 2024 6:42:49 GMT -5
This nicely sums up what I have been saying for more than a year. Putin is betting that we'll walk away and his main strategy for success is in the information space where he has a lot of help
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Post by soulflower on Mar 27, 2024 6:57:16 GMT -5
This nicely sums up what I have been saying for more than a year. Putin is betting that we'll walk away and his main strategy for success is in the information space where he has a lot of help Russia has lost the information war but it was always a good bet to assume that the US would lose interest in Ukraine. After all, Americans typically lose interest in wars after a few years and we don’t care about Ukraine as much as Russians do…
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Post by pickle20 on Mar 27, 2024 6:58:31 GMT -5
This nicely sums up what I have been saying for more than a year. Putin is betting that we'll walk away and his main strategy for success is in the information space where he has a lot of help Russia has lost the information war but it was always a good bet to assume that the US would lose interest in Ukraine. After all, Americans typically lose interest in wars after a few years and we don’t care about Ukraine as much as Russians do… Because of Republicans.
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Post by soulflower on Mar 27, 2024 7:01:06 GMT -5
Russia has lost the information war but it was always a good bet to assume that the US would lose interest in Ukraine. After all, Americans typically lose interest in wars after a few years and we don’t care about Ukraine as much as Russians do… Because of Republicans. If it makes you feel better, go ahead and blame them instead of acknowledging that Ukraine was never going to win a war against a country three times their size
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 27, 2024 7:03:31 GMT -5
This nicely sums up what I have been saying for more than a year. Putin is betting that we'll walk away and his main strategy for success is in the information space where he has a lot of help Russia has lost the information war You're a walking daily reminder of just how good Putin's regime is at the information war.
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Post by soulflower on Mar 27, 2024 7:08:50 GMT -5
Russia has lost the information war You're a walking daily reminder of just how good Putin's regime is at the information war. Ukraine is winning the propaganda war on Twitter/X while losing the actual war. That’s not pro-Russian, it’s just the inconvenient truth…
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Post by pickle20 on Mar 27, 2024 8:02:48 GMT -5
If it makes you feel better, go ahead and blame them instead of acknowledging that Ukraine was never going to win a war against a country three times their size Define win. Pushing them back beyond the post-2014 borders was a possible scenario with our help and the help of other nations. Russia attempted to invade northern Ukraine at the start of the war and were pushed back, so there is precedent.
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Post by soulflower on Mar 27, 2024 8:35:48 GMT -5
If it makes you feel better, go ahead and blame them instead of acknowledging that Ukraine was never going to win a war against a country three times their size Define win. Pushing them back beyond the post-2014 borders was a possible scenario with our help and the help of other nations. Russia attempted to invade northern Ukraine at the start of the war and were pushed back, so there is precedent. Ukraine defines "winning" as militarily recapturing the 1/5 of Ukraine that the Russians occupy plus Crimea. It's not going to happen in the near future. The Russians are dug in and Ukraine is on their backfeet. Biden shouldn't have set the expectation for Ukraine that we would have the political will here in the US to support them with tens of billions of dollars indefinitely. It was inevitable that the political winds would shift here. This war is existential for Ukraine but it's not for Americans so we can walk away or reduce our levels of support any time...
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Post by pickle20 on Mar 27, 2024 8:38:28 GMT -5
Define win. Pushing them back beyond the post-2014 borders was a possible scenario with our help and the help of other nations. Russia attempted to invade northern Ukraine at the start of the war and were pushed back, so there is precedent. Ukraine defines "winning" as militarily recapturing the 1/5 of Ukraine that the Russians occupy plus Crimea. It's not going to happen in the near future. The Russians are dug in and Ukraine is on their backfeet. Biden shouldn't have set the expectation for Ukraine that we would have the political will here in the US to support them with tens of billions of dollars indefinitely. It was inevitable that the political winds would shift here. This war is existential for Ukraine but it's not for Americans so we can walk away or reduce our levels of support any time... Because of Republicans.
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Post by soulflower on Mar 27, 2024 8:47:05 GMT -5
Biden must be the weakest President in our lifetimes. He's responsible for nothing that happens on his watch apparently.
In my view, he set unrealistic expectations on the Ukraine war.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 27, 2024 8:53:29 GMT -5
After all, Americans typically lose interest in wars after a few years but, the truth is that a majority in both Houses of Congress supports additional aid to Ukraine.
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Post by soulflower on Mar 27, 2024 8:58:42 GMT -5
After all, Americans typically lose interest in wars after a few years but, the truth is that a majority in both Houses of Congress supports additional aid to Ukraine. It's misleading to imply that what Congress does or doesn't do is what Americans want (in most cases). Congress doesn't really represent the American people. Furthermore, there's no political consequences for Republicans slow-walking aid to Ukraine. It's not on the radar of the average American.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 27, 2024 8:59:37 GMT -5
Ukraine defines "winning" as militarily recapturing the 1/5 of Ukraine that the Russians occupy plus Crimea. It's not going to happen in the near future. The Russians are dug in and Ukraine is on their backfeet. [/quote] You'll note how in response to the article, Soul has basically just reinforced the key point of the article Of course, Soul goes further by suggesting that somehow the political will isn't there when, in fact, a bi-partisan majority of Senators (70) voted for additional aid to Ukraine and aid to Ukraine has the support of a significant bi-partisan majority of House members as well.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 27, 2024 9:03:02 GMT -5
but, the truth is that a majority in both Houses of Congress supports additional aid to Ukraine. It's misleading to imply that what Congress does or doesn't do is what Americans want (in most cases). Congress doesn't really represent the American people. But in this case... poll after poll after poll shows that a clear majority of Americans support Ukraine
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 27, 2024 9:04:15 GMT -5
Biden must be the weakest President in our lifetimes. He's responsible for nothing that happens on his watch apparently. In my view, he set unrealistic expectations on the Ukraine war. Pickle is correct and you are wrong. Aid is being held up by an extremist groups of right wing MAGA republicans. That's just a basic fact.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 27, 2024 9:09:28 GMT -5
These guys have Soulflower nailed
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Post by soulflower on Mar 27, 2024 9:15:12 GMT -5
These guys have Soulflower nailed The Neoconservative-run website that has given bad analysis throughout the conflict? Have at it. I couldn’t care less what they think of people who have had better analysis of what is happening in Ukraine. When you can’t win on facts, you and them run to your typical ad hominem attacks. I miss the old school liberals who preferred facts over fantasy. That was back when “reality” had a liberal bias and people like Keith Olbermann were still semi-normal.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 27, 2024 9:22:08 GMT -5
These guys have Soulflower nailed The Neoconservative-run website that has given bad analysis throughout the conflict? Have at it. I couldn’t care less what they think of people who have had better analysis of what is happening in Ukraine. When you can’t win on facts, you and them run to your typical ad hominem attacks. I miss the old school liberals who preferred facts over fantasy. That was back when “reality” had a liberal bias and people like Keith Olbermann were still semi-normal. I'm sorry they're not some random account on twitter run by a Russian stooge They've been pretty spot on in most of the their analysis. The guy claiming that I am making ad hominem attacks is back to throwing labels at anyone who doesn't agree with his pro-Putin world view. The truth is, their ability to describe how the Russian information efforts manipulate the arguments of people like you is pretty uncanny. They even got your 'forever wars' line. The fact that you simply refuse to grasp is the fact that our economies dwarf Russia's by a factor of 30 to 1.
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Post by pickle20 on Mar 27, 2024 9:39:18 GMT -5
Biden must be the weakest President in our lifetimes. He's responsible for nothing that happens on his watch apparently. In my view, he set unrealistic expectations on the Ukraine war. Two things can be true at once. Biden aimed too high for Ukraine, Republicans are pulling the rug out from under Ukraine.
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Post by soulflower on Mar 27, 2024 9:53:06 GMT -5
The Neoconservative-run website that has given bad analysis throughout the conflict? Have at it. I couldn’t care less what they think of people who have had better analysis of what is happening in Ukraine. When you can’t win on facts, you and them run to your typical ad hominem attacks. I miss the old school liberals who preferred facts over fantasy. That was back when “reality” had a liberal bias and people like Keith Olbermann were still semi-normal. I'm sorry they're not some random account on twitter run by a Russian stooge Everyone who disagrees with your analysis is a "Russian stooge". Do Russians hide under you bed and scare you at night? They've been pretty spot on in most of the their analysis. I mostly agree but they've also said some pretty embarrassing things that that they've had to correct or explain later. For example, last summer, during the counteroffensive, it took them months to acknowledge that the Russians were rotating troops in the South and had a manpower advantage. They also spent like four months saying the battle of Bakhmut was "culminating" for the Russians before Ukraine retreated last April. Overall, while I respect their daily updates on Ukraine, their political spin is ideologically neoconservative, which means their foreign policy analysis is often going to be wrong. The guy claiming that I am making ad hominem attacks is back to throwing labels at anyone who doesn't agree with his pro-Putin world view. I'm not and have never been "pro-Putin". Nor am I Eurocentric or Western-centric like you. Putin, because he's no longer able to associate with the West, just aligns with my Global South-centric worldview in some ways (see his support for the Palestinians or defense of China for examples). I support the Multipolarism movement and welcome the new world order where the US has less power to bully other countries.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 27, 2024 14:16:57 GMT -5
They also spent like four months saying the battle of Bakhmut was "culminating" for the Russians before Ukraine retreated last April. Last I looked, the Russian advance culminated at Bakhmut and the Russians and Ukrainians are still squabbling over podunk towns like Ivanivske while Ukraine enjoys the high grounds at Chasiv Yar. I tried to tell you over a year ago that Bakhmut had no real strategic significance but you were so desperate for a Russian 'win' that you blew it out of all proportion - meanwhile, Russia lost tens of thousands killed and wounded for a meaningless town that they turned into rubble.
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Post by soulflower on Mar 27, 2024 14:54:37 GMT -5
They also spent like four months saying the battle of Bakhmut was "culminating" for the Russians before Ukraine retreated last April. Last I looked, the Russian advance culminated at Bakhmut and the Russians and Ukrainians are still squabbling over podunk towns like Ivanivske while Ukraine enjoys the high grounds at Chasiv Yar. I tried to tell you over a year ago that Bakhmut had no real strategic significance President Zelensky disagreed with your analysis and Ukraine continued to try to fight for Bakhmut (with some success) throughout their summer counteroffensive: March 2023 - Zelensky warns of ‘open road’ through Ukraine’s east if Russia captures Bakhmut, as he resists calls to retreatFrom what I understand, the terrain west of Bakhmut is more flat and easier for invaders to traverse. So yes, Bakhmut is/was important for Ukaine. Hence why Ukraine sacrificed so many men to defend the city (and tried to recapture it later). We both have gotten some analysis wrong at times. However, the difference between you and I is that I'm not afraid to admit when I'm wrong while you double-down even when Ukrainian sources like President Zelensky or General Zaluzhny disagree with your analysis.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Mar 27, 2024 15:35:38 GMT -5
From what I understand, the terrain west of Bakhmut is more flat and easier for invaders to traverse. So yes, Bakhmut is/was important for Ukaine. Hence why Ukraine sacrificed so many men to defend the city (and tried to recapture it later). Learn how to read a map. Bakhmut is in a valley with an elevation of about 83/90 meters. Chasiv Yar has an elevation of around 249/260 meters. I've pointed this out to you repeatedly so I don't know why you can't seem to understand it. Ukraine would be more than happy to sit and look down as Russia commits thousands of more to the slaughter as they run up hill against prepared defenses. But hey, what's another ten or twenty thousand dead or wounded Russians? It is an illustration of why some refer to what Ukraine is doing as the anvil and hammer strategy. Ukraine is the anvil and they let Russia pound away at these positions over and over while wasting thousands of troops and tons of equipment. And, let's recall how this endless conversation came up again. The Russian offensive culminated at Bakhmut. You tried to imply otherwise in an effort to discredit ISW. They basically got it right. You got it wrong.
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Post by soulflower on Apr 3, 2024 19:36:45 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Apr 4, 2024 3:56:52 GMT -5
It has gotten to the point where I know what stories you're going to post before I even get to the thread. Any idea why Ukraine might be struggling on the battlefield right now? Think hard.
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