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Post by soulflower on Jun 14, 2024 8:49:38 GMT -5
Both Ukraine and Russia are sharing their preferred terms for peace this week. If neither side is able to force an unconditional surrender, the war will likely end with compromises made by both sides. The question is, what will they be able to compromise on?
Russia's (starting) terms for ending the war:
Ukraine's (starting) terms for ending the war:
Both sides have starting points that make sense but realistically, you can't impose the most favorable terms for yourself on your opponent unless you decisively win the war. Given that neither side seems likely to achieve total victory, there will be compromises before the war ends.
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Post by pickle20 on Jun 14, 2024 9:40:46 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Jun 14, 2024 9:48:20 GMT -5
The question is "How will the war end?" not how do you personally want the war to end.
We need more realism, and less wishful thinking...
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summer23
Full Member
"Sometimes party loyalty asks too much." JFK
Posts: 1,907
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Post by summer23 on Jun 14, 2024 10:29:06 GMT -5
Both Ukraine and Russia are sharing their preferred terms for peace this week. If neither side is able to force an unconditional surrender, the war will likely end with compromises made by both sides. The question is, what will they be able to compromise on? Russia's (starting) terms for ending the war: Ukraine's (starting) terms for ending the war: Both sides have starting points that make sense but realistically, you can't impose the most favorable terms for yourself on your opponent unless you decisively win the war. Given that neither side seems likely to achieve total victory, there will be compromises before the war ends. Both sides have to give up something. I cannot see where Russia is giving up anything. Could you explain?
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Post by Jimmy Jazz on Jun 14, 2024 10:42:32 GMT -5
The obvious concession for Russia is that in exchange for Ukraine ceding the land Russia has conquered and renouncing any claim to it, Ukraine joins EU/NATO at some future point.
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Post by soulflower on Jun 14, 2024 10:51:59 GMT -5
Both Ukraine and Russia are sharing their preferred terms for peace this week. If neither side is able to force an unconditional surrender, the war will likely end with compromises made by both sides. The question is, what will they be able to compromise on? Russia's (starting) terms for ending the war: Ukraine's (starting) terms for ending the war: Both sides have starting points that make sense but realistically, you can't impose the most favorable terms for yourself on your opponent unless you decisively win the war. Given that neither side seems likely to achieve total victory, there will be compromises before the war ends. Both sides have to give up something. I cannot see where Russia is giving up anything. Could you explain? I think Russia will have to give up on their goal of replacing the current Ukrainian government with a "pro-Russian" Ukrainian government. Regime change in Ukraine seems out of reach for Russia.
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Post by soulflower on Jun 14, 2024 10:53:37 GMT -5
The obvious concession for Russia is that in exchange for Ukraine ceding the land Russia has conquered and renouncing any claim to it, Ukraine joins EU/NATO at some future point. That may be a workable compromise and it wouldn't be a win for Putin given his desire to keep Ukraine out of NATO.
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Post by Rael on Jun 14, 2024 11:18:55 GMT -5
The obvious concession for Russia is that in exchange for Ukraine ceding the land Russia has conquered and renouncing any claim to it, Ukraine joins EU/NATO at some future point. That may be a workable compromise and it wouldn't be a win for Putin given his desire to keep Ukraine out of NATO. No way Putin agrees to any compromise that puts Ukraine in NATO. IMHO of course.
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Post by Jimmy Jazz on Jun 14, 2024 12:41:10 GMT -5
I don’t think Putin would either but it’s a place to start based on his initial offer.
What is clear is that Ukraine is not getting its land back. Start with that reality and go from there.
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Post by soulflower on Jun 14, 2024 12:50:51 GMT -5
I don’t think Putin would either but it’s a place to start based on his initial offer. What is clear is that Ukraine is not getting its land back. Start with that reality and go from there.Not likely to happen before the next US election. But I do think things are headed in that direction. We've seen enough over the last 2.5 years to know the limits of what each side can accomplish via military force.
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Post by rocketwolf on Jun 14, 2024 18:28:18 GMT -5
There will be no resolution until Putin is dead.
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Post by JoyinMudville on Jun 15, 2024 1:06:30 GMT -5
The overstretched Russian military collapses
Probably in the spring of 2025
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Post by rocketwolf on Jun 15, 2024 6:53:30 GMT -5
It could well be a ruination of whatever civilization and society russia now has, which doesn't look like much right now anyway.
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Post by soulflower on Jun 15, 2024 7:02:11 GMT -5
Whether Putin outlives the war or not, he’s not the only person in Russia’s ruling class who supports the war. Russian nationalists are convinced that this war is existential and that they’re already fighting NATO. It will likely continue even if Putin is replaced before the war ends.
There’s only one way out of this: compromise.
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Post by soulflower on Jun 15, 2024 18:27:10 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Jun 16, 2024 18:37:53 GMT -5
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Post by JoyinMudville on Jun 16, 2024 19:27:43 GMT -5
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Post by soulflower on Jun 16, 2024 20:27:06 GMT -5
^Decolonize Russia while supporting Israel's colonization of Palestine. Why no one outside of Brussels takes these folks seriously anymore...
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Post by Jimmy Jazz on Jun 16, 2024 21:38:52 GMT -5
It’s impressive how Russia has been able to hold together its vast empire, especially given how pretty much every other multiethnic state in Europe has fragmented. Is it that no one wants to be the next Chechnya or are they doing something right? The former defense guy Shoigu looked vaguely central Asian so maybe they’ve integrated fairly well.
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Post by soulflower on Jun 17, 2024 7:17:22 GMT -5
It’s impressive how Russia has been able to hold together its vast empire, especially given how pretty much every other multiethnic state in Europe has fragmented. Is it that no one wants to be the next Chechnya or are they doing something right? The former defense guy Shoigu looked vaguely central Asian so maybe they’ve integrated fairly well. I've heard that Russia's military has leaned on a disproportionate number of ethnic minorities from the far-eastern regions since the 2022 invasion. Ethnic tensions still exist. Russian nationalists have had some problems with Russia's large Muslim minority. So things aren't harmonious between the different regions of Russia. But how likely is it that Russia will implode from within in the near future? Very unlikely it seems.
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Post by WKDWZD on Jun 17, 2024 7:43:48 GMT -5
Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding
"Dark storm clouds threatened to upend Serhiy and Tania’s beach wedding. But as the couple walked down the long white staircase to greet their guests, the empty chairs signalled there was a bigger problem. In total, half of their guests were missing.
Their family and friends sent their apologies but explained that the risk of attending had been too great. What if they had been caught by one of the conscription squads, which now roam Ukraine’s streets?
With many of its soldiers dead, injured or exhausted, the Ukrainian government has stepped up its efforts to mobilise more men.
A new law, introduced in May, requires every man aged between 25 and 60 to log their details on an electronic database so they can be called up. Conscription officers are on the hunt for those avoiding the register, pushing more men who do not want to serve into hiding."
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Post by vosa on Jun 17, 2024 8:13:49 GMT -5
Whether Putin outlives the war or not, he’s not the only person in Russia’s ruling class who supports the war. Russian nationalists are convinced that this war is existential and that they’re already fighting NATO. It will likely continue even if Putin is replaced before the war ends. There’s only one way out of this: compromise. You mean appeasement. Whether it's local, state, national or international history tells us that tolerating theft only leads to more theft.
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Post by soulflower on Jun 17, 2024 8:34:59 GMT -5
Whether Putin outlives the war or not, he’s not the only person in Russia’s ruling class who supports the war. Russian nationalists are convinced that this war is existential and that they’re already fighting NATO. It will likely continue even if Putin is replaced before the war ends. There’s only one way out of this: compromise. You mean appeasement.Whether it's local, state, national or international history tells us that tolerating theft only leads to more theft. What's the alternative? The current course isn't sustainable.
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Post by vosa on Jun 17, 2024 8:37:27 GMT -5
You mean appeasement.Whether it's local, state, national or international history tells us that tolerating theft only leads to more theft. What's the alternative? The current course isn't sustainable. You don't get to make that call. Russia and Ukraine will decide what's sustainable and what isn't.
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Post by soulflower on Jun 17, 2024 8:38:30 GMT -5
What's the alternative? The current course isn't sustainable. You don't get to make that call.Russia and Ukraine will decide what's sustainable and what isn't. I know that. Doesn't mean we can't debate the question. Our opinions don't matter to anyone outside of this forum...
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Post by vosa on Jun 17, 2024 8:48:26 GMT -5
You don't get to make that call.Russia and Ukraine will decide what's sustainable and what isn't. I know that. Doesn't mean we can't debate the question. Our opinions don't matter to anyone outside of this forum... WHAT? You mean Biden and Trump don't check here everyday to learn what they ought to be doing? Do you realize you have shattered the illusions of many posters here? I foresee a precipitous drop in membership and perhaps a few cases of PTSD.
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Post by Rael on Jun 17, 2024 9:10:26 GMT -5
I know that. Doesn't mean we can't debate the question. Our opinions don't matter to anyone outside of this forum...WHAT? You mean Biden and Trump don't check here everyday to learn what they ought to be doing? Do you realize you have shattered the illusions of many posters here? I foresee a precipitous drop in membership and perhaps a few cases of PTSD. Ok Vosa, credit where credit is due. That was amusing. To be fair though, the way both campaigns are going, they perhaps could benefit from our collective wisdom...
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Post by soulflower on Jun 17, 2024 12:22:45 GMT -5
Not sure what Trump would change about US policies in Ukraine but he clearly isn't as committed to the US role in the war as Biden is...
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Post by ishmael on Jun 17, 2024 12:49:41 GMT -5
Russia keeps most of what they have stolen. They will cede some back to Ukraine to placate. The area returned will be a demilitarized zone. Russia will "pledge" to never again invade Ukrainw, so long as Ukraine doesn't join NATO.
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Post by pickle20 on Jun 17, 2024 13:08:55 GMT -5
Not sure what Trump would change about US policies in Ukraine but he clearly isn't as committed to the US role in the war as Biden is... A conman calling someone a salesman. I guess it's a compliment.
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